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HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 1998
 
SSM/I DATA AT 2111Z INDICATED AN EYE FEATURE IN KARL. CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 75 KNOTS IN ACCORDANCE WITH LATEST DVORAK
ANALYSES.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST UNTIL THE
HURRICANE REACHES COOLER SEA TEMPS...IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AND IS
FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRA-TROPICAL AT 72 HOURS.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS 050/9 KNOTS.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING KARL.  THIS FEATURE SHOULD SLOWLY
ACCELERATE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST.  THE TRACK
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCE OF OPINION
REGARDING THE FORWARD SPEED LATER IN THE PERIOD.  THE CURRENT
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE AND CALLS FOR A MODEST
ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.
 
JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/0900Z 31.2N  50.7W    75 KTS
12HR VT     26/1800Z 32.0N  49.5W    75 KTS
24HR VT     27/0600Z 33.3N  47.9W    75 KTS
36HR VT     27/1800Z 34.7N  46.4W    70 KTS
48HR VT     28/0600Z 39.0N  41.0W    60 KTS
72HR VT     29/0600Z 44.0N  30.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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