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TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU SEP 24 1998
 
DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 2.5 FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB.  THUS THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KNOTS.  THE FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM
GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING BEFORE BECOMING EXTRA-TROPICAL BY 48 HOURS
WITH KARL APPROACHING 24 DEG C WATER.
 
LATEST SATELLITE FIXES ARE SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE EAST...PERHAPS A
DIP TO THE SOUTH IN THE TRACK.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
095/16 KNOTS.  KARL IS RACING EAST AHEAD OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK SHOWS A GENERAL EAST MOTION WITH A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AS THE TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD AND
DE-AMPLIFIES. 
 
JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/0900Z 32.7N  57.9W    35 KTS
12HR VT     24/1800Z 32.5N  55.0W    35 KTS
24HR VT     25/0600Z 32.7N  51.0W    40 KTS
36HR VT     25/1800Z 33.2N  46.9W    45 KTS
48HR VT     26/0600Z 34.2N  42.8W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     27/0600Z 37.0N  33.7W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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