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HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON SEP 28 1998
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.
THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE DEPENDS ON WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
IS LOCATED IN RELATION TO THE DEEP CONVECTION...AND THERE IS OVER 60
NMI SCATTER IN THE FIXES FROM SAB...TAFB...AND KGWC.  INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 80 KNOTS...WHICH IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
VARIOUS SATELLITE ESTIMATES.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST SINCE
JEANNE IS BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER WATER COOLER THAN 26C.  THE SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY BECOME EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS.
 
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/18.  CONSIDERABLE SCATTER EXISTS IN
THE GUIDANCE MODELS...BUT NEARLY ALL SUGGEST THAT STEERING CURRENTS
WILL CONTINUE THE NORTHEASTWARD MOTION FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO. 
THEREAFTER...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BE CAUGHT UP IN THE
WESTERLIES.  CURRENT TRACK IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE MID LAYER BAM AND AVIATION
MODELS.  THE UKMET AND GFDL SUGGEST A LITTLE MOTION SOUTH OF EAST
AFTER 36 OR 48 HOURS...WHICH IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

MAYFIELD
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/0300Z 35.8N  36.6W    80 KTS
12HR VT     29/1200Z 37.5N  34.5W    75 KTS
24HR VT     30/0000Z 39.0N  31.5W    70 KTS
36HR VT     30/1200Z 39.8N  28.5W    65 KTS
48HR VT     01/0000Z 40.0N  25.5W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     02/0000Z 40.0N  19.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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