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HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 23 1998
 
AN EYE CONTINUES TO APPEAR INTERMITTENTLY AND DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T-NUMBER REMAIN 4.5 OR ABOUT 80 KNOTS.  SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TO 90 KNOTS AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL MODEL
AND THE CURRENT TREND.  THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH
SUGGESTS SOME SHORT TERM STRENGTHENING AND THEN WEAKENING TO A
MINIMUM HURRICANE AT 72 HOURS.
 
THE CONTROLLING FEATURE FOR TRACK REMAINS THE ANTICYCLONE TO THE
NORTH.  THE MOTION OF JEANNE...285/15 KT...HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE
THE CYCLONE FORMED AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE FORESEEN FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE FORECAST TRACK REPRESENT AN EXTENSION OF THE
PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.
 
GROSS

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/2100Z 15.3N  31.9W    80 KTS
12HR VT     24/0600Z 15.9N  34.2W    85 KTS
24HR VT     24/1800Z 16.8N  36.8W    90 KTS
36HR VT     25/0600Z 17.7N  39.3W    90 KTS
48HR VT     25/1800Z 18.8N  41.8W    90 KTS
72HR VT     26/1800Z 21.0N  46.0W    90 KTS
 
 
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