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TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 1998
 
THE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF HERMINE MOVED UP
TO THE COAST DURING THE EVENING...AND NOW HAS NEARLY STALLED THERE. 
THE MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 020/3 KT.  THE AIRCRAFT AND DOPPLER RADAR
DATA SHOW A FEW SMALL PATCHES OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND THE
NHC ESTIMATE IS DECREASED TO 35 KT.  THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE
DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL BE DISCONTINUED AT THAT TIME.
 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 22N
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.  THIS SHOULD STEER HERMINE AND ITS
REMNANTS TO THE NNE AND THEN THE NE.  THE TRACK MODELS AND OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOW THIS WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TO 10 KT IN 24
HOURS.
 
THE PRIMARY THREAT REMAINS FLOODING FROM RAINS AND STORM SURGE IN
THE NORMALLY VULNERABLE LOWER LYING AREAS.  BOTH PROBLEMS ARE LIKELY
TO BE CONFINED TO THE AREA EAST OF THE TRACK.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.  NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE WATCHES/WARNINGS ARE MADE ON
THIS ADVISORY.
 
RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     20/0300Z 29.1N  90.6W    35 KTS
12HR VT     20/1200Z 30.1N  90.3W    30 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     21/0000Z 31.8N  89.2W    25 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     21/1200Z 33.7N  87.5W    20 KTS...INLAND...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     22/0000Z 35.0N  85.3W    20 KTS...INLAND...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     23/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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