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TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 1998

...CORRECTION...POSSIBLE NEW CENTER POSITION 26.5N 91.8W
 
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS ABLE TO LOCATE THE CENTER OF DEPRESSION
EIGHT AS A VERY WEAK VORTEX WITH LIGHT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER.
HIGHEST WINDS WERE NEARLY 40 KNOTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL NEAR THE
CONVECTION LOCATED SOME 120 NM NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  DEEP
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BURST OVER A SMALL AREA NEARLY TWO TO THREE
DEGREES NORTHEAST OF THIS CENTER.  GIVEN THE CONTINUED SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT ...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KNOTS AND THE
FORECAST INTENSITY REDUCED TO 35 KNOTS FOR ALL PERIODS EXCEPT FOR
THE LAST WHERE 20 KNOTS IS FORECAST OVER LAND.  IF THIS SHEARING
CONTINUES...IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL REGAIN DEEP
CONVECTION AND ATTAIN TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY AT ALL.
 
THE DEPRESSION REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY...EXCEPTING THE SMALL
EAST SOUTHEASTWARD DRIFT.  IT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN EFFECTIVELY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE 12-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD BEFORE MOVING NORTH
AND NORTHEAST.  THIS MOTION IS FORECAST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH...LOCATED PRESENTLY OVER WEST TEXAS...MOVES EASTWARD.  IF THE
SYSTEM FAILS TO REGAIN DEEP CONVECTION...THE LOW-LEVEL VORTEX WILL
BE STEERED MORE BY THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW.

AFTER THE ABOVE DISCUSSION WAS WRITTEN THE RECONN AIRCRAFT FOUND
ANOTHER CENTER NEAR 26.5N 91.8W.  IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THE CENTER
MOVED 60NM IN 2 HOURS BUT SINCE THIS CENTER IS SOMEWHAT CLOSER TO
THE DEEP CONVECTION...A NEW CENTER MAYBE FORMING.  IN ANY CASE...IF
TRUE...THE FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS ARE STILL 15 TO 20 KNOTS NEAR THIS NEW
CENTER AND THE MORE NORTHERLY POSITION IS STILL COVERED BY THE WATCH
AREA.  FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES SHOULD CLARIFY THIS
SITUATION.  
 
GROSS
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     19/0900Z 25.7N  91.6W    30 KTS
12HR VT     19/1800Z 25.7N  91.6W    30 KTS
24HR VT     20/0600Z 27.1N  91.2W    35 KTS
36HR VT     20/1800Z 28.7N  90.6W    35 KTS
48HR VT     21/0600Z 30.9N  89.4W    35 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     22/0600Z 35.0N  85.0W    20 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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