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TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 1998
 
NO RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS AVAILABLE FOR THE 00Z FIX...BUT THE
LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED THE LOW-LEVEL EXPOSED CENTER
OF THE DEPRESSION DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARDS.  DEEP CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO BURST OVER A SMALL AREA NEARLY A DEGREE OR TWO
NORTHEAST OF THIS CENTER.  GIVEN THE CONTINUED SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KNOTS.  THE
FORECAST INTENSITY REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUSLY.
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THE 06Z FIX.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS NEARLY STATIONARY...EXCEPTING THE SMALL
SOUTHEASTWARD DRIFT.  IT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN EFFECTIVELY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE 12-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD BEFORE MOVING NORTH
AND NORTHEAST.  THIS MOTION IS FORECAST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH...LOCATED PRESENTLY OVER WEST TEXAS...MOVES EASTWARD.
 
GROSS
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     19/0300Z 25.8N  92.1W    30 KTS
12HR VT     19/1200Z 25.8N  92.1W    30 KTS
24HR VT     20/0000Z 27.1N  91.7W    35 KTS
36HR VT     20/1200Z 28.5N  91.1W    45 KTS
48HR VT     21/0000Z 30.1N  90.1W    35 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     22/0000Z 34.6N  85.1W    20 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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