ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 1998
 
THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FOUND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN BOTH
STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY BUT SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL A WELL DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CENTER EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS HOSTILE FOR STRENGTHENING AT THIS TIME BUT ONLY
A SMALL RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR COULD ALLOW STRENGTHENING. NO CHANGE
IN INTENSITY IS INDICATED DURING THE NEXT 12 OR SO.  THEREAFTER...WE
ARE FORECASTING THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL BECOME A TROPICAL STORM. 
 
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY BUT A GENERAL
NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD TRACK SHOULD BEGIN ON SATURDAY AS A MID-
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. 
 
AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     18/2100Z 26.0N  92.4W    30 KTS
12HR VT     19/0600Z 26.0N  92.4W    30 KTS
24HR VT     19/1800Z 27.5N  92.0W    35 KTS
36HR VT     20/0600Z 29.0N  91.5W    45 KTS
48HR VT     20/1800Z 30.5N  90.0W    35 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     21/1800Z 34.5N  84.5W    20 KTS...INLAND
 
 
NNNN