ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  55
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON SEP 28 1998
 
THE MOBILE RADAR SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF GEORGES HAS MOVED IN A
SMALL CYCLONIC LOOP OVER THE PAST 8 TO 10 HOURS.  THIS SHOULD NOT BE
TOO SURPRISING AS SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PREDICTING VERY
LITTLE MOTION.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 160/04.
 
MODEL GUIDANCE...
THE LBAR AND AVIATION MODEL AS WELL AS A STATISTICAL DYNAMICAL MODEL
MOVE GEORGES MOSTLY EASTWARD ACROSS GEORGIA AND OFF THE EAST COAST
IN 72 HOURS. THE NOGAPS TRACK IS SLOW NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD FOR 24
HOURS AND THEN LOSES THE CIRCULATION.  THE UKMET SHOWS VERY LITTLE
MOTION FOR 72 HOURS AND THE GFDL SHOWS SLOW SOUTHEAST TO EASTWARD
MOTION TO OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE IN 72 HOURS.
 
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FOR A SLOW MOSTLY EASTWARD DRIFT FOR
72 HOURS AS A KIND OF CONSENSUS OF THE ABOVE GUIDANCE.
 
A REPORT OF 39 KNOT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED FROM HURBURT FIELD IN THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE ALONG WITH 35 TO 50 KNOT WINDS FROM THE MOBILE
RADAR SOUTH OF THE CENTER AT 1000 FT OR SO ELEVATION IS THE BASIS
FOR KEEPING GEORGES AS A TROPICAL STORM.  AND IT MAY REMAIN SO FOR A
WHILE LONGER IF THE CENTER DRIFTS BACK OVER WATER.
 
LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/0300Z 30.5N  88.9W    40 KTS...INLAND
12HR VT     29/1200Z 30.3N  88.5W    35 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     30/0000Z 30.3N  88.0W    35 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     30/1200Z 30.4N  87.5W    30 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     01/0000Z 30.5N  87.0W    30 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     02/0000Z 30.7N  85.5W    25 KTS...INLAND
 
 
NNNN