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TROPICAL STORM FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 1998
 
THE CENTER HAS BEEN APPROXIMATELY STATIONARY FOR AT LEAST 6
HOURS...BASED ON SURFACE OBS...SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA.  THE
AVIATION-MODEL-BASED TRACK GUIDANCE SHOW A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION FOR
THE NEXT 3 DAYS AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE
RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  IT IS NOTED THAT THE UKMET AND
NOGAPS SHOW VERY LITTLE MOTION FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS.
 
A SHIP XCMP HAD 33 KNOTS AT 18Z AT 28.9N 93.9W...SO THE WIND SPEED
IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS AT 18Z.  SINCE FRANCES IS NOT MOVING YET...THE
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED WEAKENING MAY BE DELAYED A FEW MORE HOURS.
 
LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     11/2100Z 28.6N  97.1W    35 KTS...INLAND
12HR VT     12/0600Z 29.0N  97.5W    30 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     12/1800Z 30.0N  98.0W    25 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     13/0600Z 31.1N  98.3W    25 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     13/1800Z 32.1N  98.3W    25 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     14/1800Z 34.0N  98.0W    25 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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