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TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE SEP 01 1998
 
IT IS MOST DIFFICULT TO LOCATE A CENTER ON INFRARED AND THE LAST
RECON WAS AT 00Z.  IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE MOTION IS NEARLY
STATIONARY.   THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS SLOWER THAN LAST ADVISORY AND
SUGGESTS A SHIFT TO THE LEFT.  THE GFDL HAS THE CENTER NEAR THE
LOUISIANA COAST IN 72 HOURS...THE UKMET IS SLOWER...AND THE NOGAPS
IS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
IS SLOWER AND A LITTLE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
A BURSTING CDO PATTERN OVERNIGHT IS DYING OUT.  THE INITIAL WIND
SPEED IS LEFT AT 35 KNOTS...ASSUMING THE CENTER IS NORTH OF THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION...AS BEFORE.   THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS EARL TO 60
KNOTS AT 73 HOURS WHILE THE GFDL GOES TO 100 KNOTS BY 48 HOURS.  THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS NOT CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY BRINGING EARL TO 65 KNOTS IN 48 HOURS.
 
THE SLOWER FORECAST TRACK SUGGESTS THAT A WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST MAY NOT BE NEEDED FOR A WHILE.
 
LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     01/0900Z 22.5N  93.6W    35 KTS
12HR VT     01/1800Z 23.0N  93.5W    40 KTS
24HR VT     02/0600Z 24.0N  93.5W    45 KTS
36HR VT     02/1800Z 25.0N  93.5W    55 KTS
48HR VT     03/0600Z 26.5N  92.5W    65 KTS
72HR VT     04/0600Z 29.0N  90.0W    65 KTS
 
 
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