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HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON AUG 31 1998
 
THE MOTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WAS 335/05 AND OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS APPEARS TO BE EVEN MORE NORTHWARD.  THE MOTION CONTINUES TO
CLOSELY FOLLOW THE FORECAST TRACK.  THE NEW MODEL GUIDANCE IS AGAIN
BASED ON AN EXTENSIVE SET OF OBSERVATIONS FROM A MULTIPLE-AIRCRAFT
MISSION OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC AND CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
SAME RECURVATURE SCENARIO AS BEFORE.  SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS VERY SIMILAR TO...AND AN UPDATE OF...THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE
FORECAST TRACK HAS A FORWARD MOTION OF ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR 24 HOURS
AND ACCELERATING TO 30 KNOTS AT 48 HOURS.
 
RECON REPORTED A CENTRAL SURFACE PRESSURE OF 980 MB AND A MAX 700-
MB WIND OF 74 KNOTS NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER ALONG WITH A 20 NMI
DIAMETER EYE...SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 70 KNOTS.  THE
FORECAST IS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING...THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL THROUGH 36
HOURS.
 
LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     31/0900Z 28.8N  74.4W    70 KTS
12HR VT     31/1800Z 30.0N  74.2W    75 KTS
24HR VT     01/0600Z 31.3N  73.5W    80 KTS
36HR VT     01/1800Z 32.6N  71.8W    85 KTS
48HR VT     02/0600Z 35.0N  68.2W    80 KTS
72HR VT     03/0600Z 41.5N  58.0W    75 KTS
 
 
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