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HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 1998
 
AN AIR FORCE PLANE HAS BEEN OBSERVING DANIELLE DURING THE MORNING
AND MEASURED FLIGHT-LEVEL PEAK WINDS OF 88 KNOTS ABOUT 12 NM FROM
THE EYE. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED SO FAR IS 986 MB AND
SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE BETWEEN 77 AND 90 KNOTS. INITIAL INTENSITY
IS SET AT 80 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THIRTY-
DEGREE CELSIUS WATERS AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX. THE
HURRICANE HAS NO WESTERLIES AHEAD AT ALL AND IN FACT...ONE CAN
OBSERVE THE HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING WESTWARD FROM THE HURRICANE. WE DO
NOT SEE THAT VERY OFTEN IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHERE WESTERLIES ARE
MORE THAN OFTEN DISRUPTING THE TROPICAL CYCLONES.  THE ENVIRONMENT
LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH SHIPS
INTENSITY FORECAST AND THE GFDL COUPLED MODELS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST BRINGS DANIELLE TO 100 KNOTS BY 48 HOURS.
  
INITIAL MOTION IS 285/13.  THE RIDGE NORTH OF DANIELLE IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE A STRONG MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. IN
RESPONSE TO THAT PATTERN...TRACK MODELS...WHICH ARE IN REMARKABLY
GOOD AGREEMENT... CONSISTENTLY TURN DANIELLE NORTHWARD AND NORTH
NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH BEYOND 48 HOURS.  THE EXCELLENT
MODEL AGREEMENT INCREASES THE LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WHICH KEEPS THE HURRICANE AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES.    

THE NOAA HIGH ALTITUDE JET WILL BE SAMPLING THE ENVIRONMENT NORTH OF
DANIELLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND WILL PROVIDE A BETTER
ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
 
AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/2100Z 23.7N  66.5W    80 KTS
12HR VT     29/0600Z 24.2N  68.5W    85 KTS
24HR VT     29/1800Z 25.2N  70.7W    90 KTS
36HR VT     30/0600Z 26.5N  73.0W    95 KTS
48HR VT     30/1800Z 28.0N  74.0W   100 KTS
72HR VT     31/1800Z 32.5N  74.0W   100 KTS
 
 
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