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TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 1998
 
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS REPORTED FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 40 TO 48
KNOTS IN THE NORTHWEST AROUND TO EAST QUADRANTS.  THUS THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KNOTS.  A LARGE CONVECTIVE OUTBURST HAS
OCCURRED TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER WHICH MAY HERALD ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING TO COME. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER BEFORE
LANDFALL.
 
THE ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CENTER WAS FIXED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WITH A 1006 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE. ALL OF THE TRACK MODELS
SHOW A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FOLLOWS
THIS AND IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/0300Z 27.1N  95.7W    40 KTS
12HR VT     22/1200Z 28.1N  97.7W    40 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     23/0000Z 29.0N 100.0W    30 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     23/1200Z 29.6N 102.6W    20 KTS...INLAND
 
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