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TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  40
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 1998
 
RECON AND SATELLITE INDICATE THAT THE CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASING IN FORWARD SPEED. INITIAL MOTION IS
050/11.  ALL OF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS THE SAME...SHOWING
ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST THROUGH 24 TO 36 HOURS AND THEN
MORE EASTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS AND IS SLIGHTLY
RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS.  ALL MODELS
NOW KEEP THE CENTER OFFSHORE OF THE U.S. MAINLAND.  WITH THE STORM
MOVING NORTHEAST AND THE 34 KT WIND RADIUS IN THE NORTHWEST QUAD OUT
TO 100 NM... IT WAS AGREED TO LOWER THE TS WARNING SOUTH OF WATCH
HILL.
 
THE LATEST RECONNAISSANCE REPORTED A 68 KNOTS FLIGHT LEVEL WIND TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER BUT ONLY A 45 KT SURFACE WIND.  SURFACE
WIND ANALYSIS FROM HRD SHOWS WINDS BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. ON THIS
BASIS BONNIE IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM OF 60 KTS. 
WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COLDER WATER
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
 
JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/2100Z 37.7N  73.0W    60 KTS
12HR VT     29/0600Z 38.8N  71.3W    60 KTS
24HR VT     29/1800Z 41.0N  68.0W    55 KTS
36HR VT     30/0600Z 43.0N  63.5W    50 KTS
48HR VT     30/1800Z 45.0N  56.0W    50 KTS
72HR VT     31/1800Z 46.0N  36.0W    50 KTS
 
 
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