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TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  35
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU AUG 27 1998
 
NWS DOPPLER RADAR DISPLAYS SUGGEST THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS IN BONNIE HAVE DROPPED BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH.  THE CENTER
PASSED NEAR NEW BERN AND CHERRY PT MCAS AROUND 13Z...WITH PRESSURES
DROPPING TO ABOUT 983 MB.  THESE DATA SUPPORT DOWNGRADING BONNIE TO
A TROPICAL STORM...WITH 55 KT WINDS AND SOME GUSTS STILL TO
HURRICANE FORCE...MAINLY OVER THE WATERS TO THE EAST.
 
THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 035 DEGREES AT 5 KT AND THE FORECAST TRACK IS
LITTLE CHANGED.  THIS KEEPS THE POTENTIAL HIGH FOR FLOODING RAINS
OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TONIGHT.  SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS PREDICTED...IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT GFDL OUTPUT.
THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO REMAIN AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AFTER
EXITING THE COAST AND COULD PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES TO CAUSE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG/NEAR THE COAST.
 
THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN REVISED TO REFLECT THE NEW AND
FORECAST INTENSITY. 
 
RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/1500Z 35.2N  76.8W    55 KTS
12HR VT     28/0000Z 36.1N  76.2W    50 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     28/1200Z 37.7N  74.8W    50 KTS
36HR VT     29/0000Z 39.5N  72.7W    50 KTS
48HR VT     29/1200Z 41.0N  69.0W    50 KTS
72HR VT     30/1200Z 45.1N  53.2W    50 KTS
 
 
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