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HURRICANE BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED AUG 26 1998
 
RADAR...SURFACE DATA...AND RECON INDICATE LITTLE MOVEMENT...PERHAPS
A SLIGHT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DRIFT...OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. 
THE CENTER HAS BEEN HUGGING THE COASTLINE BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF OUR OBJECTIVE TRACK PREDICTIONS. 
THE NHC FORECAST ALSO SHOWS A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST-
NORTHEAST LATER IN THE PERIOD...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE GFDL TRACK.

THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF BONNIE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ENORMOUS AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL.  TOTALS UP TO 20 INCHES OR SO ARE SHOWN BY THE LATEST GFDL
RUN.  THIS WOULD CREATE A SERIOUS FLOOD PROBLEM.  

THE CIRCULATION IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT INTERACTS WITH LAND. 
MAXIMUM DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITIES FROM THE WSR-88D ARE BARELY 90
KNOTS AT 4000 TO 5000 FT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  CURRENT
INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 85 KNOTS AND GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD
CONTINUE.

PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/0300Z 34.2N  77.7W    85 KTS
12HR VT     27/1200Z 35.0N  77.4W    75 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     28/0000Z 36.0N  76.6W    65 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     28/1200Z 37.2N  75.0W    60 KTS
48HR VT     29/0000Z 39.5N  71.0W    55 KTS
72HR VT     30/0000Z 42.0N  60.0W    50 KTS
 
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