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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MITCH ADVISORY NUMBER  52
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 AM EST THU NOV 05 1998

...HEAVY RAINS AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA... 

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...
AND FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SOUTHWARD FROM TARPON SPRINGS ON THE
WEST COAST AND SOUTHWARD FROM NEW SMYRNA BEACH ON THE EAST COAST.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN CUBA FROM 
THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS WESTWARD INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH...AND
FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.

AT 4 AM EST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MITCH WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE  82.3 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES FLORIDA.
 
MITCH IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 55 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
A WIND OF GUST OF 65 MPH WAS REPORTED FROM FOWEY ROCKS LIGHTHOUSE
JUST SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI...WHILE A PEAK GUST OF 59 MPH WAS REPORTED 
AT DRY TORTUGAS C-MAN BUOY LOCATED ABOUT 65 MILES WEST OF KEY WEST
FLORIDA. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED FROM THE NOAA
RECONAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS  993 MB...29.32 INCHES.
 
STORM TIDES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE NEAR AND SOUTH OF WHERE
THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
 
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...ARE POSSIBLE
IN ASSOCIATION WITH MITCH.  THESE RAINS WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS MORNING...AND SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS.  6-HOURLY RAINFALL TOTALS OF THREE TO FOUR INCHES WERE
RECENTLY REPORTED AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN SOUTH FLORIDA.
 
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THIS MORNING.
 
REPEATING THE 4 AM EST POSITION...25.7 N... 82.3 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 
55 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 993 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 7 AM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM
EST.
 
GUINEY
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT73 KNHC.
 
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