Industry output and employment projections to 2008 (EXCERPT), Monthly Labor Review Online, Nov. 1999

Industry output and employment projections to 2008

Allison Thomson

Note: projections for 1998-2008 have been superseded by projections for 2000-10

Total employment in the United States is projected to increase by 20.3 million between 1998 and 2008, from 140.5 million to 160.8 million. The projected average annual growth rate of 1.4 percent is 0.2 percent slower than the rate experienced over the period 1988–98. The majority of growth in total employment is attributed to the projected increase of 19.7 million nonfarm wage and salary jobs, from 124.9 million to 144.5 million. The number of nonfarm self-employed and unpaid family workers also is projected to increase, from 9.0 million to 9.9 million, while the number of private household wage and salary jobs is expected to decline from 962,000 to 758,900. Agricultural employment, including wage and salary and self-employed and unpaid family workers, is expected to decrease by 51,000 jobs. (See table 1.)

Real output is expected to expand by nearly $4.9 trillion between 1998 and 2008, from $13.3 trillion to $18.2 trillion. Its projected average annual growth rate of 3.2 percent is 0.5 percent faster than the rate posted between 1988 and 1998. Real output in the service-producing sector is expected to expand by 3.2 percent annually, somewhat faster than the annual growth rate of 2.9 percent realized over the earlier period. Real output growth in the goods-producing sector is projected to increase 3.4 percent annually, compared with annual growth of 2.4 percent between 1988 and 1998. Annual output growth of 5.5 percent a year is projected to occur in durable goods manufacturing, for an increase of $1.6 trillion over the period 1998–2008. Annual output growth in agriculture is expected to slow slightly from the previous 10-year period, to 1.4 percent annually. (See table 2.)

This excerpt is from an article published in the November 1999 issue of the Monthly Labor Review. The full text of the article is available in Adobe Acrobat's Portable Document Format (PDF). See How to view a PDF file for more information.

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The quality of BLS projections: a historical account.—May 1999
Employment outlook: 1996-2006.—Nov. 1997.: BLS projections to 2006--a summary.; Industry output and employment projections to 2006.; Labor force 2006: slowing down and changing composition.; Occupational employment projections to 2006.; The U.S. economy to 2006.

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