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Issue Papers on Demographic Trends Important to Housing (February 2003, 154 p.)
The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development has commissioned three
papers on demographic trends important to housing in order
to better understand how these trends will shape both housing
demand and supply over the coming decade: Issue Paper on
the Impact of Immigration for Housing, by Barry Chiswick
and Paul Miller; Projections of U.S. Households by Race/Hispanic
Origin, Age, Family Type, and Tenure to 2020: A Sensitivity
Analysis, by George Masnick and Zhu Xiao Di; How Changes
in the Nation's Age and Household Structure will Reshape Housing
Demand in the 21st Century, by Martha Farnsworth Riche.
These papers review past immigration patterns, how assumptions
about future immigration can influence population predictions
and current and future trends in households' age and minority
compositions, respectively. Collectively, these three papers
illustrate that the current demographic profile of the typical
American household can be expected to change dramatically
over the coming decades.
Barry Chiswick and Paul Miller look at the differences between
immigrant and native-born household locations, variations
between groups in their housing market participation, and
the likely impact of future immigration on the demand for
housing in the first paper. George Masnick and Zhu Xiao Di
review the potential for growth in the number of households,
owners, and renters, including the contribution of past and
future immigration to these projections. They use the Potential
Housing Demand (PHD) model- developed by researchers at the
Joint Center for Housing Studies- to project the number of
households and their tenure choice over the next 20 years.
In the final paper, Martha Farnsworth Riche discusses the
aging population, the growing prevalence of minority households,
and the effect these trends may have on housing demand.
As the number of households who are married with no children,
minority with children, and elderly households continue to
grow proportionally, housing industry participants must analyze
their true preferences rather than rely on past assumptions
of housing demand. For instance, assuming that the needs of
minority households and non-Hispanic white family households
are the same would be imprudent. Thus the housing industry
cannot assume that the future demand for housing will be the
same as in the past. Instead, the housing market must analyze
preferences of these emerging households to ensure that supply
can indeed adequately meet demand.
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