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000 FXUS62 KMFL 191123 AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 723 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008 .AVIATION... MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS S FLA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A QUICK PASSING SHRA MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE E CST THIS MORNING BUT ANY LOWERING OF CIG/VSBY TO MVFR WILL ONLY BE FOR LESS THAN 15 MINUTES. SCT TSRA WILL DEVELOP AFT 14Z WITH LOW LEVEL NE FLOW STEERING CONVECTION INLAND AWAY FROM THE E CST AND HAVE ONLY PLACED VCTS IN THE TAFS. THE THREAT REMAINS LOW ENOUGH EVEN THOUGH SOME OF THE STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE SW CST HAVE ONLY PLACED VCSH IN THE TAF FOR KAPF. THE NE FLOW WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 12KT ALONG THE E CST AFT 13Z AND THIS WILL PREVENT A W CST SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING. 30/KOB && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008/ DISCUSSION...THE UNSEASONABLE DEEP UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE U.S. E SEA BOARD HAS MOVED E INTO THE ATLC. A SHORT WAVE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NE GULF OF MEX N INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY MOVES E OVER THE FLA PENINSULA TODAY AND TONIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS UPPER LOW BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE UPPER FLOW AND MEANDERS NORTHWARD AND WEAKENS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST MON. A LONG WAVE RIDGE DEVELOPS AND EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEX TO N OF THE GREAT LAKES TUE...MOVING E TO NEW ENGLAND WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW FORMING OVER THE MID ATLC STATES WED AND THU. FOR THE SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUN...ATMOSPHERE A BIT DRIER BUT SCATTERED POPS STILL EXPECTED...MAINLY ALONG THE E COAST THIS MORNING AND IN THE INTERIOR AND W THIS AFTERNOON. SOME E COAST NOCTURNAL SHOWERS TONIGHT. RIDGE OVER THE AREA SAT INTO SUN PUTS A DRY MID LEVEL CAPPING LAYER OVER S FLA AND POPS AGAIN A BIT LOWER. EXTENDED PERIOD...MON THROUGH THU...GRADUAL MOISTENING THE ATMOSPHERE OCCURS AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE BAHAMAS MOVES OVER S FLA. SCATTERED POPS EXPECTED WITH NEAR NORM TEMPS. MARINE...WINDS NE 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY DUE TO LOW PRES DEVELOPING WELL OFF OF THE COAST E OF JAX. WINDS BECOME E TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AND DECREASE TO 10 KNOTS. WINDS BACK TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS NEXT WEEK. GULF STREAM SEAS TO 5 FEET TODAY BUT BECOMING 4 FEET OR LESS THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AT TIMES EARLY NEXT WEEK. FIRE WEATHER...MINIMUM RH ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO PROBLEMS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 89 76 89 76 / 40 20 30 30 FORT LAUDERDALE 90 78 88 78 / 40 20 30 30 MIAMI 90 77 89 77 / 40 20 30 30 NAPLES 91 74 90 73 / 40 10 30 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$