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000 FXUS62 KMFL 220746 AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 346 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2008 DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST MOVES ESE AND DEEPENS OVER THE APPALACHIANS AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE...EXTENDING FROM OL` MEX NNE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BUILDS. THE UPPER LOW BECOMES CLOSED AND CUTOFF OVER THE CAROLINAS TUE AND PERSISTS OVER THE ATLC OFF OF THE SE U.S. OR OVER THE SE U.S. INTERIOR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. FOR THE SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WED...AS THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE CAROLINAS...A SURFACE LOW ALSO DEVELOPS OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS ...WHICH CONNECTS TO A WEAK TROUGH THAT EXTENDS OVER CENTRAL FLA. AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS...THE SURFACE TROUGH EDGES S AND COMBINED WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE...POPS WILL BE HIGHER TODAY AND TUE DUE TO GREATER CONVERGENCE WITH THE TROUGH AND E/W COAST SEA BREEZES. STEERING WINDS FAVOR THE INTERIOR AND W/SW AREAS. TONIGHT...AFTER EVE CONVECTION MAINLY W...NOCTURNAL SHOWERS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE ATLC/E COAST TONIGHT AND TUE NIGHT. BY WED...CIRCULATION ABOUT THE UPPER LOW TO THE N BRINGS A WESTERLY DRIER AIR MASS ALOFT OVER S FLA AND POPS LOWER. MAX TEMPS MAY SHADE A LITTLE LOWER AS INCREASED CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF PRECIP HAMPER THE CLIMB TOWARDS NEAR NORM TEMPS. .EXTENDED PERIOD...THU THROUGH SUN...POSITIONING AND PERMANENCE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER. CURRENTLY MODELS INDICATE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVING OVER THE AREA WITH FLOW FROM W TO E WHICH MAY COOL THE W COAST SOME BUT WARM THE INTERIOR AND E. TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND DEEPER MOISTURE IS PULLED TOWARD S FLA FROM THE SW AND POPS COULD INCREASE. AT THE PRESENT TIME WILL CHANGE CURRENT PACKAGE VERY LITTLE AWAITING DEVELOPMENTS. ONE GOOD THING WITH THE INCREASED WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA...IF THE CONVECTION NEAR PUERTO RICO DEVELOPS INTO A DEPRESSION...SYSTEM SHOULD STAY E OF THE FLA PENINSULA. && .MARINE...EAST WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUE. THEN AS THE SURFACE TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH S FLA WITH WINDS BECOMING NE AND GRADUALLY INCREASING TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH THU BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING. GULF STREAM SEAS GRADUALLY RISEAS WELL WITH THE NE FLOW AND CAUTION MAY BE REQUIRED TUE AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE ADVISORY FOR THE ATLC WATERS WED MORNING THROUGH FRI AS NE SWELLS MAY BEGIN TO ADD TO THE WAVE HEIGHTS WITH LOW PRESS PERSISTENT OFF OF THE CAROLINAS. && .FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS AS MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH VALUES REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY HIGH. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 88 78 86 74 / 50 40 50 30 FORT LAUDERDALE 89 80 86 75 / 40 40 50 30 MIAMI 90 79 87 75 / 40 40 50 30 NAPLES 91 74 89 73 / 50 40 60 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ LONG TERM...15/JR SHORT TERM/AVIATION...04/AT