000
FXUS62 KMFL 200142
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
942 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.UPDATE...
REMNANTS OF AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION HAVE SHIFTED TO THE
GULF WATERS OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST...AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE
IN AN ESTABLISHED NORTHEAST FLOW REGIME SUCH AS THE ONE CURRENTLY
IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. HAVE ADJUSTED EVENING POP GRIDS TO
REFLECT HIGHER RAIN CHANCES EARLY OVER THE GULF WATERS...WITH
SCATTERED ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT OVER
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. OTHERWISE...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
WIND AND CLOUD COVER GRIDS...BUT TEMPERATURES/DEW POINTS LOOK TO
BE ON TRACK AT THIS TIME. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008/

AVIATION...DOPPLER RADAR SHOWING SCT-NMRS SHWRS OVER ATLC WATERS
MOVING SOUTHWEST. WL EXPECT A FEW OF THESE TO PASS CLOSE TO ERN
TERMINALS CLOSEST TO THE COAST THROUGH 06Z BUT DISSIPATING BEFORE
REACHING KTMB. SFC WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 5-10 KTS BY
06Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN OVR KAPF THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD. SFC WINDS SHOULD BE MORE EASTERLIES AND NOT AS
GUSTY OVER ERN TERMINALS SATURDAY, HOWEVER, EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY
CURRENTLY OVER ATLC WATERS/NRN BAHAMAS TO BE ADVECTED WESTWARD AND
SO WILL INDICATE VCSH AGAIN IN THE TAFS FOR SAT MORNING. GUIDANCE
SUGGEST TSTM ACTIVITY OVER ERN AREAS EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, SO
WL INDICATE VCTS FOR ALL ERN TERMINALS STARTING AT 17Z BUT EXPECT
SEA BREEZE WL PUSH ALL ACTIVITY INLAND AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS
(EXCEPT KTMB) BY 20Z.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008/

DISCUSSION...THIS MORNINGS RAOB COMBINED WITH THE CURRENT MIMIC-
TPW IMAGES SHOW DRIER AIR STILL MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS EXTREME
SOUTH FLORIDA. 88-D SHOWS ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
MOVING SOUTHWEST. HAD TO CHANGES THE POPS FOR THE REST OF TODAY
FROM 40 PERCENT TO AT MOST 20 PERCENT. IN THE SHORT TERM, THE
GFS40 WANTS TO MOVE A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WEST FROM THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY SAT AND SAT NGT BUT THE NAM12 SHOWS A VERY SLOW
MOVEMENT WESTWARD. HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE THROUGH SUNDAY AND
WENT LOW CHC POPS. THE NAM12 FINALLY SHOWS THE MOISTURE AND TROUGH
REACHING SOUTH FLORIDA BY MONDAY. I INHERITED GOOD POPS WITH AN
INCREASE BY MON SO THIS LOOKS GOOD. GFS40 MEAN RH RISES BY TUE AND
WENT CLOSE TO MEXMOS WITH A HIGHER END CHANCE CATEGORY.

ALSO IN THE SHORT TERM, A MID LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
WEEKEND AND DEVELOPS A LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY FRIDAY BUT
AS THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES NORTH AND WEAKENS, THE ATLANTIC LOW
MOVES NORTH A WEAKENS ALSO. IN THE MEANTIME, A DECENT NORTHEAST
FLOW EXISTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES UNTIL THE LOW WEAKENS
SUN NGT. THIS WILL SEND SOME SWELLS SOUTHWARD INTO FLORIDA. AN
EVEN STRONGER NE FLOW DEVELOPS MID WEEK TO THE WEST OF AN INVERTED
TROUGH.

MARINE...WINDS WILL BE NE-E 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET
THROUGH SUN NGT EXCEPT TO 4 FEET PALM BEACH WATERS SAT NGT DUE
TO 3 FOOT SWELLS. WAVES AND SWELLS DECREASE BY MONDAY OVER THE
ATLANTIC TO LESS THAN 4 FEET. WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH SAT AND ON WED.

FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS HERE AS THE RH`S WILL BE ABOVE CRITICAL
VALUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  89  77  89 / 20 30 30 40
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  90  79  89 / 20 30 30 30
MIAMI            77  90  78  90 / 20 30 30 30
NAPLES           74  91  74  90 / 20 30 20 30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LONG TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...47/RHG