000
FXUS62 KMFL 250806
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
405 AM EDT THU SEP 25 2008

CURRENTLY...WINDS NE 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE ATLC BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT HAS MOVED INTO THE UPPER KEYS/FLA BAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE ATLC WATERS MOVING ONSHORE PALM BEACH COUNTY WITH A
WIND SURGE AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. SHOWERS EXTEND TO THE MID INTERIOR
BEFORE DISSIPATING.

DISCUSSION...AS 50H RIDGE MOVES E FROM E CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND
...THE UPPER LOW/SURFACE LOW OFF OF THE SE U.S. COAST MOVE WESTWARD
AND OVER THE SE U.S. BY FRI MORNING. BY SUN...THE UPPER SYSTEM/SUR
-FACE LOW BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MOVE NE ALONG THE EASTERN SEA BOARD.
S FLA THOUGH REMAINS IN A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS A BROAD LONG WAVE
TROUGH THE EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY WITH THE ATLC UPPER RIDGE TO  THE SE.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SAT...SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MAINLY E HALF OF AREA THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON EXTREME S
AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS S FLA. MOISTURE LINGERS JUST S
OF AREA TONIGHT.  SW WINDS ALOFT FRI INTO SAT GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
INCREASE MOISTURE AGAIN OVER S FLA. MINIMAL SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ACROSS
THE EXTREME S PORTION OF THE PENINSULA FRI AND TO THE W COAST...EX
-TREME S PENINSULA AND ATLC WATERS FRI NIGHT. ON SAT...THE CHANCES
OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH SOME THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.EXTENDED...SUNDAY THROUGH THU...DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE PERSISTS
THROUGH MID WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. CHANCES OF RAIN DAILY
CAN BE EXPECTED. ANOTHER FRONT POSSIBLE MID WEEK WITH DRIER AND A
BIT COOLER WEATHER ON THE HORIZON.

&&
MARINE...N/NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH MID MORNING AFFECTING
LAKE OKEECHOBEE...BISCAYNE BAY AND THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS...THEN
THE WINDS BEGIN A DECREASE. THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE NE SWELLS GENERAT
-ED BY THE SURFACE LOW OFF OF THE SE U.S. COAST. UPSTREAM OBS SHOW
10-13FT/11-13S SWELLS AT BUOYS 41009 AND 41010 WHICH LEAD TO PEAK
SWELLS BETWEEN 6 AND 7 FT ALONG COASTAL PALM BEACH COUNTY BEFORE
BEGINNING TO DECREASE TONIGHT. MAIN EFFECTS WILL BE SOME MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AT HIGH TIDE BETWEEN 5 TO 6 AM THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AFFECTING THE PALM BEACH COUNTY COAST
PRIMARILY BUT POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF BROWARD COUNTY AS WELL. SOME
BEACH EROSION IS ALSO POSSIBLE. ATLC SEAS WILL PEAK AROUND 10-11FT
...MAINLY OFF OF PALM BEACH IN THE GULF STREAM. AS THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES ONSHORE TONIGHT...THE SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO DECAY TONIGHT AS
WELL BUT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT ATLC WATERS THROUGH SUN MORNING.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...BOATING AND BEACH INTERESTS WILL BE AFFECTED. A
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY
AFFECTING PALM BEACH COUNTY AND ALL THE ASSOCIATED HAZARDS OF SOME
COASTAL FLOODING...BEACH EROSION AND HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK. FOR THE
BEACHES OF BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES...MINOR BEACH EROSION
AND HIGH RISK OF RIP EXPECTED.

&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DEW POINTS DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S NW INTERIOR TODAY
AND FRI AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  85  69  87  71 / 10 10 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE  86  72  87  73 / 10 10 10 10
MIAMI            87  71  88  72 / 10 10 10 10
NAPLES           87  69  87  69 /  5 10 10 20

&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR FLZ168.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ650-AMZ651-AMZ670-AMZ671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM...15/JR
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...04/AT