000
FXUS62 KMFL 211149
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
749 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2008

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW. ISOLD SHRA WILL MOVE ONSHORE OF THE SE CST THIS MORNING WITH
AND HAVE PLACED VCSH IN ALL E CST TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
KPBI. ONE SUCH SHRA WILL MOVE OVER KPBI THROUGH 13Z AND HAVE
ACCOUNTED FOR THIS BY INCLUDING A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE FIRST HOUR.
IN THIS FLOW, MOST CONVECTION SHOULD BE EAST OF THE TERMINALS BY
18Z WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLD TSRA GETTING CLOSE TO KAPF AFT
19Z AS THE W CST SEA BREEZE SETS UP. WIND FLOW WILL BECOME
DIMINISH AGAIN AFT 02Z.

30/KOB


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2008/

..WITH A CUTOFF UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SE U.S./N AND CENTRAL
FLA PENINSULA WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUE...SOME DRY SUBSIDENT AIR
ALOFT REMAINS OVER S FLA TODAY AGAIN CURTAILING THE CHANCES OF RAIN.
LOW POPS E WHICH GRADUALLY RISE TO THE W BUT REMAIN BELOW NORMS.
LIMITED E COAST POPS TONIGHT WHICH END IN THE EVE W. MON THE ATMO
-SPHERE BEGINS TO DESTABILIZE AND MOISTURE GRADUALLY BEGINS TO
INCREASE WITH A SLIGHTLY DEEPER EASTERLY FLOW WITH THE TREND
CONTINUING INTO TUE.

EXTENDED PERIOD...WED THROUGH SAT...ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
DESTABILIZE AND MOISTEN AS UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SE U.S.
POSSIBLE DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT A FACTOR AND WEATHER BEGINS TO TREND
FROM W TO E IN A REVERSAL OF THE NORMAL S FLA LATE SUMMER/EARLY FALL
PATTERN. THE A LARGE TROUGH OVER E U.S. THE GLOB OF WEATHER S OF
PUERTO RICO IN THE CARIBBEAN SHOULD PULL NORTHWARD AND REMAIN WELL E
OF S FLA. THE UPPER LOW WILL GENERATE A SURFACE LOW OFF OF THE NC
COAST WHICH MAY PULL A FRONT?...AT LEAST POSSIBLY COOLER AND DRIER
AIR OVER S FLA NEXT WEEKEND. ONE CAN HOPE.

MARINE...EASTERLY WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS WITH GULF STREAM SEAS UP
TO 4 FEET AT TIMES WHEN WINDS DEVELOP A NE TREND TODAY THROUGH TUE.
BY WED AND THU...LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE THE ATLC OFF OF THE SE
U.S. COAST MAY BEGIN TO GENERATE SOME SWELLS THAT MAY IMPACT MAINLY
THE PALM BEACH WATERS WITH SEAS TO 7 FEET. A SMALL SWELL STILL
AFFECTING PALM BEACH WATERS TODAY.

FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS MINIMUM RH VALUES REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY HIGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  77  88  76 / 20 20 30 30
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  80  89  78 / 20 20 30 30
MIAMI            90  78  89  77 / 20 20 30 30
NAPLES           90  75  91  74 / 30 20 30 30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$