Tropical Storm JULIO

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TROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112008
200 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2008
 
IT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER OF JULIO.  HOWEVER...
SATELLITE IMAGERY...MEXICAN RADAR DATA FROM GUSAVE...AND CONTINUITY
FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY SUGGEST THE CENTER REMAINS OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  THE CYCLONE IS PRODUCING
STRONG CONVECTION WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -80C NEAR THE CENTER...
ALTHOUGH THE GUSAVE RADAR DEPICTION OF THE CENTER IS RATHER POOR. 
IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 35 KT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 335/13.  JULIO IS WEST OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER WEST CENTRAL MEXICO.  THE LARGE SCALE MODELS FORECAST
THIS FEATURE TO BUILD WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF JULIO...WITH A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING NORTH OF JULIO OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES.  THE RESULT OF THIS EVOLUTION WILL BE TO LEAVE JULIO
IN AN AREA OF COLLAPSED STEERING CURRENTS BY 48-72 HR.  THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION THROUGH 36 HR...THEN NOT SURPRISINGLY STARTS TO DIVERGE. 
BASED ON THE GUIDANCE....THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...CALLING FOR JULIO TO GRADUALLY DECELERATE AS IT
MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...THEN CALLING FOR IT TO STALL AFTER 48
HR.
 
WHILE THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CENTER OF JULIO OVER THE WARM
WATERS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE CYCLONE WILL BE ENCOUNTERING
STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AFTER 12-18 HR.  BASED ON THIS
AND SOME CONTINUING LAND INTERACTION...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS
FOR JULIO TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 48 HR. 
NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECASTS THE REMNANTS TO SURVIVE MUCH
LONGER THAN 72 HR...AND THUS THE FORECAST CALLS FOR DISSIPATION BY
96 HR. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/0900Z 25.8N 111.8W    35 KT
 12HR VT     25/1800Z 27.0N 112.3W    30 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     26/0600Z 28.4N 112.9W    30 KT...OVER WATER
 36HR VT     26/1800Z 29.2N 113.2W    25 KT
 48HR VT     27/0600Z 29.9N 113.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     28/0600Z 30.0N 113.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     29/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
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