Slower But Continued Economic Growth Predicted in Current State Forecast
Document Actions
For Immediate Release: August 15, 2008
DBEDT Release News 08-22
HONOLULU--In its latest quarterly economic report, the Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism (DBEDT) expects moderate but slower growth in Hawai‘i's economy for this year and the next.
"Our data shows that Hawai‘i is undergoing a slowdown in its rate of economic growth," said DBEDT Director Theodore E. Liu. "However, we are not forecasting a dramatic correction; in fact, we still expect to see modest economic growth in the state."
Personal income, total wage and salary jobs, and state gross domestic product (GDP) are all forecast to show some growth over the next several years; however, the projected rates of growth have decreased from the previous forecast. The shut down of Aloha Airlines and ATA coupled with the departure of two domestic cruise ships from Hawai‘i's market is expected to cause declines in total visitor arrivals for 2008.
Total visitor arrivals are now expected to decline 6.7 percent in 2008, compared to 3.0 percent decrease in the previous forecast. DBEDT projects slight decrease in total visitor arrivals in 2009, followed by 1.4 percent and 1.7 percent growth in 2010 and 2011, respectively.
Real personal income (corrected for inflation) is now estimated to increase 0.4 percent in 2008, down 0.4 of a percentage point from the previous forecast. In 2009, real personal income is projected to grow 0.8 percent, down 0.3 of a percentage point from the previous forecast. These downward revisions in real income growth are mainly due to revised higher forecasts of inflation.
The Honolulu Consumer Price Index (CPI), a proxy for inflation, is expected to rise 4.5 percent in 2008, 0.3 of a percentage point higher than in the previous forecast. The CPI growth for 2009 is projected to be 3.5 percent, 0.2 of a percentage point higher than in the previous forecast.
In response to slower job growth in the latest quarter and lower forecasts of visitor arrivals, the 2008 forecast of wage and salary job growth has been lowered to 0.2 percent from 0.4 percent in the previous forecast. The job growth forecast for 2009 is also decreased to 0.5 percent from 0.8 percent in the previous forecast.
Real GDP is projected to grow 1.9 percent in 2008 and 2.0 percent in 2009, respectively, down 0.4 and 0.2 of a percentage point, respectively, from the previous forecast.
The DBEDT Quarterly Statistical and Economic Report contains more than 100 tables of the most recent quarterly data on Hawaii's economy as well as narrative explanations of the trends in these data. The full report is available at: http://www.hawaii.gov/dbedt/info/economic/data_reports/qser.
| Economic Indicators | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (Actual) | (Forecast) | ||||||
| Total population (thousands) | 1,279 | 1,283 | 1,292 | 1,303 | 1,316 | 1,329 | |
| Visitor arrivals (thousands) ¹ | 7,628 | 7,628 | 7,116 | 7,062 | 7,164 | 7,284 | |
| Visitor days (thousands) ¹ | 69,885 | 70,075 | 65,570 | 65,056 | 66,005 | 67,144 | |
| Visitor expenditures (million dollars) ¹ | 12,492 | 12,811 | 11,994 | 12,339 | 12,886 | 13,494 | |
| Honolulu CPI-U (1982-84=100) | 209.4 | 219.5 | 229.4 | 237.4 | 244.4 | 251.2 | |
| Personal income (million dollars) | 47,340 | 50,277 | 52,760 | 55,051 | 57,329 | 59,702 | |
| Real personal income (millions of 2000$) ² | 39,866 | 40,381 | 40,551 | 40,881 | 41,355 | 41,896 | |
| Total wage & salary jobs (thousands) | 624.0 | 630.1 | 631.1 | 634.3 | 640.4 | 646.7 | |
| Gross domestic product (million dollars) | 58,676 | 61,532 | 64,692 | 67,607 | 70,425 | 73,318 | |
| Real gross domestic product (millions of 2000$) | 48,428 | 49,860 | 50,795 | 51,819 | 52,816 | 53,856 | |
| Gross domestic product deflator (2000=100) | 121.2 | 123.4 | 127.4 | 130.5 | 133.3 | 136.1 | |
| Annual Percentage Change | |||||||
| Total population | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.0 | |
| Visitor arrivals ¹ | 1.8 | 0.0 | -6.7 | -0.8 | 1.4 | 1.7 | |
| Visitor days ¹ | 2.4 | 0.3 | -6.4 | -0.8 | 1.5 | 1.7 | |
| Visitor expenditures ¹ | 4.9 | 2.6 | -6.4 | 2.9 | 4.4 | 4.7 | |
| Honolulu CPI-U | 5.8 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 2.8 | |
| Personal income | 6.9 | 6.2 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.1 | |
| Real personal income ² | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.3 | |
| Total wage & salary jobs | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | |
| Gross domestic product | 7.0 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 4.1 | |
| Real gross domestic product | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.0 | |
| Gross domestic product deflator | 3.7 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | |
2/ DBEDT calculated using BEA estimate of nominal personal income deflated by U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Honolulu CPI-U.
Source: Hawaii State Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism, August 14, 2008.
For more information, contact:
Dave Young, DBEDT Communications
Phone: (808) 587-1212
Email: dyoung@dbedt.hawaii.gov