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The All-Volunteer Military:
Issues and Performance
  July 2007  


Cover Graphic


Notes

In general, the years referred to in this study are federal fiscal years, unless otherwise indicated. In the section on the history of conscription, however, the years referred to are calendar years.

Numbers in the text and tables may not add up to totals because of rounding.

The cover photo shows marines preparing for a firing drill at Marine Corps Base Hawaii, Kaneohe Bay, in 2005. (Photo by Lance Corporal Roger L. Nelson.)





                
Preface

The U.S. military is currently engaged in its largest and longest operations since the Vietnam War. The deployments associated with those operations have raised concerns about the armed forces’ ability to recruit and retain the personnel they need to carry out those missions. Some observers have also voiced concern that not all segments of U.S. society are fully participating in the fighting. To increase the size of the military and to ensure that it broadly represents the populace, some people have suggested reinstating a military draft.

This Congressional Budget Office (CBO) study—prepared at the request of the Chairman of the Defense Subcommittee of the House Committee on Appropriations—considers some of the arguments made for and against the draft before or since it was replaced by the all- volunteer force (AVF) in 1973. The study also reviews some performance trends of the AVF since its inception and discusses possible effects of returning to a draft. In keeping with CBO’s mandate to provide objective, impartial analysis, this study makes no recommendations.

Heidi Golding and Adebayo Adedeji of CBO’s National Security Division wrote the report under the supervision of J. Michael Gilmore and Matthew S. Goldberg. Cary Elliott (formerly of CBO), Matthew Schmit, Victoria Liu, and Jason Wheelock contributed to the analysis. Ralph Smith, Mark Hadley, Arlene Holen, Sarah Jennings, and Donald Marron of CBO provided helpful comments, as did Robert L. Goldich and Paul F. Hogan. (The assistance of those external reviewers implies no responsibility for the final product, which rests solely with CBO.)

Christian Howlett edited the study; Loretta Lettner and Christine Bogusz proofread it. Cindy Cleveland produced drafts of the manuscript and the tables. Maureen Costantino prepared the report for publication and designed the cover. Lenny Skutnik printed the initial copies, Linda Schimmel coordinated the print distribution, and Simone Thomas prepared the electronic version for CBO’s Web site.

Peter R. Orszag
Director
July 2007




CONTENTS


  Summary
Introduction

  History of Conscription

How Many Were Drafted?

Who Was Drafted?

The Lifting of the Draft
  Some Arguments For and Against the Draft and the All-Volunteer Force

Military Effectiveness

The Cost of the Armed Forces and Economic Efficiency

Fairness and Sociopolitical Considerations
  Personnel in Today’s All-Volunteer Military

The Cost of the Armed Forces

Quality and Effectiveness of the Force

Force Composition and Equity
  Some Implications of Reinstating the Draft

Size of the Draft and Effects on Personnel Structure

Budgetary Costs and Savings and Levels of Military Pay

Effective Time for Draftees to Be Available for Deployment

Equity Considerations

Tables
   
1.  Scoring Categories for the Armed Forces Qualification Test
2.  Racial and Ethnic Composition of Active-Duty Military Personnel and U.S. Civilians
3.  Effects of Voluntary and Draft Accessions on Future End Strength in the Active Army’s Enlisted Force
   
Figures
   
1.  End Strength of the Active-Duty Military Under the Draft and the All-Volunteer Force, 1940 to 2006
2.  Annual Number of Draftees and the Military’s Total Accession Requirements, 1940 to 2006
3.  Percentage of Non-Prior-Service Recruits and Young Civilians with High School Diplomas, 1973 to 2006
4.  Distribution of AFQT Scores for Non-Prior-Service Recruits and Young Civilians Under the Draft and the All-Volunteer Force
5.  Distribution of AFQT Scores for Non-Prior-Service Recruits in the All-Volunteer Force, by Scoring Category, 1973 to 2006
6.  Percentage of Non-Prior-Service Recruits Considered High Quality by the Military, 1973 to 2006
7.  Percentage of Black Personnel in the Active Enlisted Force, by Service, 1973 to 2006
8.  Percentage of Hispanic Personnel in the Active Enlisted Force, by Service, 1973 to 2006
9.  Racial and Ethnic Representation in Military Occupational Specialties, Deployments, and Fatalities Among Active-Duty Personnel
10.  Racial and Ethnic Representation in Deployments and Fatalities Among Reserve Personnel
11.  Changes in the Geographic Representation of Recruits Since 1980
12.  Distribution of Active-Duty Enlisted Personnel, by Family Income Prior to Military Service
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