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Climate of 2004 - October in Historical Perspective

National Climatic Data Center
16 November 2004

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Global Analysis / Global Hazards / United States / U.S. Drought / Extremes
Use these links to access detailed analyses of Global and U.S. data.

Global Highlights:

  • Based on preliminary data for October 2004, global average combined land and sea surface temperature was second warmest on record
  • October temperatures were above average throughout Alaska, Australia, eastern Europe and the majority of the U.S., with below average temperatures in far northwestern Canada, eastern Russia and Ireland
  • Precipitation during October was above average across the the United Kingdom, Japan, the Mississippi Valley and lower Great Plains of the U.S., with drier than average conditions in the southeastern U.S., Scandinavia and southeastern Asia
  • Above normal SSTs across the central equatorial Pacific basin suggest ENSO is in a weak warm phase
 

Contents of this Section:

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The data presented in this report are preliminary. Ranks and anomalies may change as more complete data are received and processed. The most current data may be accessed via the Global Surface Temperature Anomalies page.
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Top of Page Introduction

The two maps below utilize different base periods and may reflect different anomaly values of land surface temperatures. The dot map on the left uses anomalies that were calculated from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) data set of land surface stations using a 1961-1990 base period. The map on the right is a blended product which uses satellite and surface anomaly values of measured land and ocean temperatures as well as SSTs with the base period of 1988-2004. Both maps reflect conditions during October 2004, indicating above average temperatures in northwestern Canada, east Africa, Australia, the southeastern U.S., Alaska and portions of Mongolia, with cooler than average temperatures in the northeastern U.S., the Caribbean, Argentina and eastern Russia.

The mean position of upper level ridges of high pressure and troughs of low pressure (depicted by positive and negative 500 millibar height anomalies on the October 2004 map) are generally reflected by areas of positive and negative temperature anomalies at the surface, respectively. For other Global products see the Climate Monitoring Global Products page.
Click here for current month's Temperature Dot map
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Click here for current month's Blended Temperature map
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Top of PageTemperature Rankings and Graphics

Current Month / Year-to-date
October Anomaly Rank Warmest Year on Record
Global
Land
Ocean
Land and Ocean
+1.05°C (+1.89°F)
+0.47°C (+0.85°F)
+0.64°C (+1.15°F)
warmest
3rd warmest
2nd warmest

2003 (+0.53°C/0.95°F)
2003 (+0.65°C/1.17°F)
Northern Hemisphere
Land
Ocean
Land and Ocean
+1.01°C (+1.82°F)
+0.56°C (+1.01°F)
+0.74°C (+1.33°F)
2nd warmest
2nd warmest
2nd warmest
2003 (+1.04°C/1.87°F)
2003 (+0.62°C/1.12°F)
2003 (+0.79°C/1.42°F)
Southern Hemisphere
Land
Ocean
Land and Ocean
+1.16°C (+2.10°F)
+0.40°C (+0.72°F)
+0.55°C (+1.00°F)
warmest
7th warmest
2nd warmest

1997 (+0.52°C/0.94°F)
1997 (+0.57°C/1.03°F)

Click here for Global Land and Ocean Triad plot
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Click here for Global Hemisphere Triad plot
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January-October Anomaly Rank Warmest Year on Record
Global
Land
Ocean
Land and Ocean
+0.82°C (+1.48°F)
+0.40°C (+0.72°F)
+0.53°C (+0.95°F)
4th warmest
4th warmest
4th warmest
1998 (+1.04°C/1.87°F)
1998 (+0.49°C/0.88°F)
1998 (+0.65°C/1.17°F)
Northern Hemisphere
Land
Ocean
Land and Ocean
+0.89°C (+1.60°F)
+0.48°C (+0.86°F)
+0.65°C (+1.17°F)
3rd warmest
2nd warmest
2nd warmest
1998 (+1.08°C/1.94°F)
1998 (+0.51°C/0.92°F)
1998 (+0.74°C/1.33°F)
Southern Hemisphere
Land
Ocean
Land and Ocean
+0.53°C (+0.95°F)
+0.36°C (+0.65°F)
+0.39°C (+0.70°F)
5th warmest
7th warmest
5th warmest
1998 (+0.85°C/1.53°F)
1998 (+0.49°C/0.88°F)
1998 (+0.56°C/1.01°F)

Click here for Global Land and Ocean Triad plot
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Click here for Global Hemisphere Triad plot
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The most current data may be accessed via the Global Surface Temperature Anomalies page.

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Top of Page Precipitation

The maps below represent anomaly values based on the GHCN data set of land surface stations using a base period of 1961-1990. The map to the left is precipitation anomalies measured in millimeters, the map to the right is the percentage of average (1961-1990) precipitation. During October 2004, much above average precipitation fell across western Europe, Japan, Alaska, parts of Brazil and the central regions of the U.S. Below average precipitation was observed in the eastern U.S., Australia, Norway, the Korean Peninsula, Mexico and the Caribbean.
Click here for Precipitation Dot map in Millimeters
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Click here for Percent Precipitation Dot map
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The satellite images below were acquired from SSM/I satellite data using a base period of 1988-2004. The map on the left reflects surface liquid wetness conditions, while the map on the right reflects snow cover conditions for the month. Snow covered areas that are normally snow-free during this month will appear drier than average on the wetness image since a wetness value cannot be determined for regions that are snow covered. Data in these areas that are normally snow covered are displayed as missing. This is due to the snow crystalline structure which produces a considerable amount of scatter and makes it difficult for the SSM/I to accurately detect the surface conditions. The SSM/I products are experimental and are under continuing review and development. Additional data and information can be found on the SSM/I Browser.
Click here for SSM/I Wetness map
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Click here for SSM/I snowcover map
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Top of Page ENSO SST Analysis




Click Here for the last week of the month's ENSO condtions Map
Click here for animated loop


    A consensus of indices suggests above normal SSTs in the central equatorial Pacific basins which suggests ENSO continued to be in a weak warm phase (El Niño) during October 2004 (as shown in the adjacent animation of weekly sea surface temperature anomalies). A comprehensive summary of October 2004 ENSO conditions can be found on the ENSO monitoring page. For the latest advisory on ENSO conditions go to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and the CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion
Images of sea surface temperature conditions are available for all months to date during 2004
at the weekly SST page This is a break in the document

Top of Page Troposphere

The table below summarizes mid-tropospheric conditions for October 2004. These temperatures are for the atmospheric layer centered in the mid-troposphere (approximately 2-6 miles above the Earth's surface) which also includes a portion of the lower stratosphere. (The MSU channel used to measure mid-tropospheric temperatures receives about 25 percent of its signal above 6 miles.) Analysis of the satellite record that began in 1979 indicates that global temperatures are increasing in the mid-troposphere, but the magnitude of the trend differs based on the analysis methods used in adjusting for factors such as orbital decay and inter-satellite differences. The 1979-2004 trend for October is 0.07°C/decade based on data from the University of Alabama at Huntsville (UAH). Based on data provided by Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) the trend for October is 0.16°C/decade. The base period used in both data sets is 1979-1998.

October Anomaly Rank Warmest Year on Record
UAH mid-troposphere +0.17°C (0.31°F) 5th warmest 1998 (+0.36°C/0.65°F)
RSS mid-troposphere +0.34°C (+0.61°F) 3rd warmest 1998 (+0.43°C/0.77°F)


Click here for UAH mid-trop image
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Click here for RSS mid-trop image
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Top of PageStratosphere


The table below summarizes stratospheric conditions for October 2004. The stratosphere is located between 10-14 miles above the Earth's surface. Over the last decade, stratospheric temperatures have been below average in large part due to the depletion of ozone. The large increase in temperature in 1982 was caused by the volcanic eruption of El Chichon in Mexico, and the increase in 1991 was a result of the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines. Therefore the base period used in both data sets is 1984-1990 which was chosen to avoid contamination by these eruptions.

October Anomaly Rank Warmest Year on Record
UAH stratosphere -0.44°C (-0.79°F) 9th coolest 1991 (+1.37°C/2.47°F)
RSS stratosphere -0.51°C (-0.92°F) 8th coolest 1991 (+1.27°C/2.29°F)

Click here for UAH lower-strat image
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Click here for RSS lower-strat image
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Mid-tropospheric and lower stratospheric temperature data are collected by NOAA's TIROS-N polar-orbiting satellites and adjusted for time-dependent biases by NASA and the Global Hydrology and Climate Center at the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH). An independent analysis is also performed by Remote Sensing Systems (RSS).


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For additional details on precipitation and temperatures in October, see the Global Hazards page .
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References:

Peterson, T.C. and R.S. Vose, 1997: An Overview of the Global Historical Climatology Network Database. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 78, 2837-2849.


For all climate questions other than questions concerning this report, please contact the National Climatic Data Center's Climate Services Division:

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For questions about this report, please contact:

    David Levinson
    NOAA/National Climatic Data Center
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    fax: 828-271-4328
    email: David.Levinson@noaa.gov
-or-
    David Easterling
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    email: David.Easterling@noaa.gov

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