Mwamburi MD, Kent DM; International Conference on AIDS (15th : 2004 : Bangkok, Thailand).

Int Conf AIDS. 2004 Jul 11-16; 15: abstract no. MoPeE4182.

Tufts - New England Medical Center, Boston, United States

Issues: According to the World Health Organization, 'The world's biggest killer and the greatest cause of ill-health and suffering across the globe is... extreme poverty.' In turn ill health is felt to be an important cause of poverty. The aim of this paper is to describe the observed relation between HIV prevalence and per capita gross domestic product (GDP) across countries within SSA. Description: We obtained 2002 estimates for population and GDP per capita and 2001 estimates for HIV prevalence data. We performed a weighted least squared regression with HIV prevalence as the outcome, log-10-transformed GDP per capita as the explanatory variable, weighted by each country's population. Lessons Learned: The mean HIV prevalence all forty countries from continental SSA is 9.2 percent (SD 8.4) and the mean GDP per capita is 2048 US[dollar] (SD 2259). The seven countries with the highest HIV prevalence (20.1% - 38.8%) are in the Southern region. The weighted regression model showed that each ten-fold increase in GDP per capita was associated with a 13.8% higher HIV prevalence (p<0.001). After excluding countries with GDP per capita greater than 5,000 US[dollar] (South Africa, Botswana, Namibia and Gabon) during sensitivity analyses, the positive correlation between GDP per capita and HIV prevalence persisted (p<0.001). The role of poverty in the HIV epidemic is indisputable, but more complex than often appreciated. Recommendations: Researchers and policymakers should be cautioned by these results against an overly simplistic reliance on poverty as an explanation of the epidemic, or as an excuse for inaction. The reversal of the usual relation between wealth and disease suggests that many of the most affected countries should, with international assistance, have the greatest capacity to support comprehensive HIV treatment programs. However, it also suggests that the costs of failing in these countries would be especially high.

Publication Types:

• Meeting Abstracts

Keywords:

• Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome
• Africa South of the Sahara
• Botswana
• Gabon
• HIV Infections
• HIV Seropositivity
• Health
• Namibia
• Population
• Population Surveillance
• Poverty
• Prevalence
• South Africa
• World Health Organization
• therapy

Other ID:

• GWAIDS0036247

UI: 102280463

From Meeting Abstracts