Latest Seasonal Assessment - In August and early September, tropical weather systems continued to eat away at drought in the South and Southeast, and Hurricane Hanna’s forecast heavy rains appeared likely to further reduce drought on September 5-6. The rains from Hanna were forecast to drench drought areas from the eastern Carolinas into southern New Jersey, but largely miss drought areas in the interior. There was also a possibility that Hurricane Ike could deliver more moisture to the Southeast during the second week of September, although Ike’s ultimate track was very uncertain as of September 3. The overall forecast through November depicted overall improvement for drought across the Southeast, as well as several areas of drought in the Plains, and for recently-developed dry areas in the Midwest. In the Southeast, the expected moisture from tropical storms and other weather systems will boost soil moisture and streamflows, but a few of the larger reservoirs in the interior Southeast, such as Lanier in Georgia, are unlikely to recover before winter. In the West, although Pacific storms will likely begin to ramp up moisture levels in northern and central California by the end of November, most of the region should not see significant improvement until later in the winter, when seasonal snows starts piling up.

Forecaster: D. Le Comte

Next Outlook issued: September 18, 2008 at 8:30 AM EDT