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Tropical Storm FELIX
ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM FELIX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
1500 UTC SAT SEP 01 2007
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FELIX WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
LA PESCO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)
VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8)
VERACRUZ MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15)
FRONTERA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)
MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 11(21)
MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8)
MERIDA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 8(28)
COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11)
COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
BELIZE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 11(30)
BELIZE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 5(13)
BELIZE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)
PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 9(18)
PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 21(28) 7(35)
GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 4(17)
GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9)
PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 10(21) 3(24)
PUERTO CABEZAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8)
PUERTO CABEZAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
BLUEFIELDS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9)
BLUEFIELDS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) 2(15)
SAN ANDRES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6)
SAN ANDRES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
LIMON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
COLON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
PT GALLINAS 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) 4(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20)
PT GALLINAS 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
PT GALLINAS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CURACAO 34 X 11(11) 3(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
CURACAO 50 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 5(18)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9)
ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) 2(16)
ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9)
CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 11(31) 2(33)
GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) 1(12)
GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) 3(27) 1(28)
MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
KINGSTON 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 17(28) 1(29) 1(30)
KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
KINGSTON 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
LES CAYES 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
CAPE BEATA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 128N 661W 34 39 21(60) 1(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61)
12 128N 661W 50 19 10(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29)
12 128N 661W 64 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
24 134N 694W 34 X 41(41) 16(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57)
24 134N 694W 50 X 15(15) 10(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25)
24 134N 694W 64 X 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
36 141N 729W 34 X 1( 1) 40(41) 15(56) 1(57) X(57) X(57)
36 141N 729W 50 X X( X) 15(15) 9(24) 1(25) 1(26) X(26)
36 141N 729W 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
48 148N 762W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 33(38) 16(54) 1(55) X(55)
48 148N 762W 50 X X( X) X( X) 17(17) 10(27) X(27) X(27)
48 148N 762W 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) X(11) 1(12)
72 160N 820W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 32(33) 13(46) 2(48)
72 160N 820W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 8(23) 1(24)
72 160N 820W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) 1(12)
96 170N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) 10(34)
96 170N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 6(17)
96 170N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9)
120 185N 915W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 11(17)
120 185N 915W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)
120 185N 915W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 60 65 70 80 90 100 55
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
NNNN
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