STRATEGIC GOAL FIVE:

Fairly and Effectively Administer the Immigration and Naturalization Laws of the United States

Background/Program Objectives:

The Immigration and Nationality Act states that the Commissioner, in consultation with interested academicians, government agencies, and other parties, shall provide for a system for collection and dissemination, to Congress and the public, of information useful in evaluating the social, economic, environmental, and demographic impact of immigration laws.  The Act provides that

“such information shall include information on… the number of aliens estimated to be present unlawfully in the United States each fiscal year.”

The initial estimates and projections reported by INS utilized the official updated 1996 estimates of the U.S. illegal population using the detailed statistical data from the U.S. Census Bureau.  The estimates were revised for 1997-1999 based on recently released information on the foreign-born population as collected in the 2000 Census, rather than in the 2000 Current Population Survey.  INS has improved the estimates further by identifying and eliminating those persons from the unauthorized population who have gained temporary protection against removal by applying for an immigration benefit.  The estimated number of illegal residents as of December 31, 1999, was reported as 6.8 million last year, but the estimate has increased to 7.0 million this year, as a result of the improved data and methodology.

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Performance:

Performance Measure: DISCONTINUED MEASURE: Total Number of Illegal Aliens Residing in the United States (in millions) [INS] (NOTE: This indicator is being discontinued - the program has been transferred to the Department of Homeland Security) (NOTE: Prior year data has been changed as follows: The annual estimates for 1997-1999 have been revised based on information on the foreign born collected in the 2000 Census and improvements in estimating persons who have obtained temporary protection against removal.  The foreign-born information in the census is based on a 1 in 6 household questionnaire [approximately 5,000,000 foreign-born households], while the previous estimates were based on a sample of approximately 50,000 households [native and foreign-born]. 

The 2000 Census data provides the basis of the estimates through December 31, 1999.  The December 31, 2002, projection is based on projecting net annual illegal immigration in 2000-02 and adding it to the December 31, 1999 population.)
            FY 2002 Target: Original target: 6.8 million. This was based on a .2 million reduction in illegal aliens residing in the U.S. between 2001 and 2002 (originally estimated at 7.0 million in 2001).  This target was set without the benefit of the 1999 baseline data now available through the 2000 Census.
            FY 2002 Estimated: 7.6 million. This reflects no measurable change in the estimated number of illegal aliens residing in the U.S. between 2001 and 2002.
            Discussion: The projected number of illegal aliens residing in the United States as of December 31, 2002, is 7.6 million.  The primary reason that the estimated number for FY 2002 is higher than the target is due to the improved estimates of the foreign-born population available through the 2000 census data, which significantly increases the estimated populations for each year following 1999.  The estimated size of the illegal population remained virtually unchanged between FY 2001 and FY 2002, while INS had projected a decrease of 200,000 in the population (see following discussion of the number of illegal aliens entering and departing the U.S.).

Performance Measure: DISCONTINUED MEASURE: Aliens Entering and Departing the Illegal Population formerly: Illegal Aliens Entering and Departing the U.S. Annually [INS] (NOTE: Prior year estimates have been revised based on new information available from the 2000 census.  The average annual number of entries of illegal aliens intending to reside in the United States was 780,000 during the 1995-1999 period, while an average of 410,000 left the illegal population, resulting in a net increase of 370,000 a year.  The projected average annual entries for 2000-2004 is 860,000, an average of 710,000 are expected to leave the population, resulting in a net increase of 150,000 a year.  The entry data for 2000-2004 period are based in part on the estimated illegal entries in 1999 as counted in the 2000 Census.  (Note that many of the aliens departing the illegally resident population remain in the United States as legal permanent residents.)
            FY 2002 Target: Original estimates:
            510,000 estimated illegal alien entries
            710,000 estimated illegal alien departures
            This results in a net 200,000 reduction in illegal aliens residing in the U.S. as discussed above.
            FY 2002 Estimated:
            775,000 estimated illegal alien entries
            770,000 estimated illegal alien departures
            Discussion: This results in a 5,000 increase in illegal aliens residing in the U.S., which is higher than targeted.  The projected target for illegal aliens entries for 2002 was set at 510,000.  This target was set without the benefit of the 1999 baseline data now available through the 2000 Census.  We currently estimate that the number of illegal alien entries in 2001 was 875,000; therefore, the number of entries are estimated to have decreased 100,000 between 2001 and 2002.  Apprehensions of undocumented aliens have generally been decreasing since FY 2000 through 2002.  This can be attributed to several factors, such as the increased level of control along the southwest border, enhanced enforcement efforts after 9/11/2001, and the possibility that undocumented aliens are more likely to remain in the U.S. rather than return to their native countries, which reduces their exposure to the possibility of apprehension upon their return to the United States.

Background/Program Objectives:

At the Ports-of-Entry

Immigration Inspectors identify and examine persons seeking entry into the United States at air, land, and sea Ports-of-Entry (POEs) in order to prevent the entry of terrorists, criminals, and unlawful migrants.  This mission entails the full range of law enforcement and border security responsibilities balanced with the need to foster travel and tourism and facilitate commerce.

INS works with other Federal Inspection Services to obtain and utilize all available information before passengers arrive at United States borders via air, land, or sea. The analysis of that data  provides information necessary to prevent illegal entry, human trafficking, and smuggling, among other crimes.

Between the Ports-of-Entry

The Border Patrol’s National Strategic Plan is the basis for a four-phased, multi-year approach to the deployment of new resources along the U.S. borders, initially concentrating on areas of greatest illegal entry.  The strategic has a national focus of “prevention through deterrence” as a means to restrict illegal traffic and encourage legal entry. Deterrence is defined as raising the risk of apprehension so high that it is futile to attempt entry. The four-phased approach builds-up resources along the entire Southwest border as well as the northern border and coastal areas of the U.S.

Areas with the highest concentration of illegal entry are given the highest priority. The strategy focuses resources on specific sectors (further defined by corridors) in priority order. Phase I includes San Diego and El Paso.  Phase II covers Tucson and McAllen. Phase III concentrates on Del Rio and Laredo and the remainder of the Southwest border. Phase IV includes the Northern Border and Coastal areas, as well as new areas of activity.

The primary indicator of successful deterrence is the significant reduction followed by leveling off of attempted entry. Optimum deterrence is defined, as the level at which applying more Border Patrol agents and resources would not yield a significant gain in arrests/deterrence.  This is a critical point in the strategy, as it would make little sense to try to reach essentially zero illegal entry attempts in one location while there are literally thousands of such attempts in another. Through sufficient staffing in recent years, the Border Patrol has profiled and predicted the trend pattern to reaching optimum deterrence.  After several years of staffing increases, a peak is reached in staffing levels and arrests, followed by a reduction in illegal entry attempts (deterrence), culminating in a leveling off of both resources and arrests (optimum deterrence).  It can take up to 6-8 years to reach optimum deterrence provided there are sufficient resources.

Although an eventual reduction in arrests is a primary indicator of illegal entry attempts (and therefore deterrence), other critical indicators include: decrease in border related crime, decrease in recidivism, shifting of illegal activity to non-traditional points of entry and through non-traditional methods, increase in smuggling fees, increase in property values and commercial and public development along the border, etc. Each of these factors is part of a comprehensive analysis conducted for each area. The effectiveness of the Border Patrol’s National Strategic Plan is evidenced by the significant changes in illegal entry attempts in the San Diego, California, El Paso and Brownsville, Texas, and the Nogales, Arizona border areas. The ultimate impact is the increase in quality of life in these areas.

As a result of the events of September 11, 2001, the Border Patrol redirected its attention forward into Phase IV of the National Strategy expanding its focus to include the Northern Border and coastal areas of the U.S.  Additional Border Patrol Agents and Aircraft Pilots were deployed to the northern border and the Border Patrol expanded its Integrated Border Enforcement Team (IBET) to all sectors along the Northern Border.  The IBET increases cooperation and exchange of intelligence between other Federal, State, and local law enforcement agencies. Representatives of the Royal Canadian Mounted Police are an integral part of the IBET teams.  

Performance:

Performance Measure: DISCONTINUED MEASURE:  High Priority Border Corridors Demonstrating Optimum Deterrence (NOTE: This indicator is being discontinued - the program has been transferred to the Department of Homeland Security)
            FY 2002 Target: 8
            FY 2002 Actual: 8
            Discussion: The Border Patrol met the FY2002 target of eight high priority border corridors demonstrating optimal deterrence.  In addition, all nine southwest border sectors demonstrated an increase in operational effectiveness (above the FY 2000 baseline) in one

or more corridors.  This increase in effectiveness was accomplished while expanding Border Patrol operations to address concerns that arose subsequent to the events of September 11, 2001.

Background/Program Objectives:

D Data Definition: Identification: the process of conducting investigations and gathering evidence and intelligence to name participants and their criminal associates violating Federal U.S. immigration laws. Since these are complex investigations, cases identified in one year produce outcomes in later years. Disruption: occurs when a targeted organization is adversely impacted as a result of INS enforcement actions. Indicators of disruption include changes in organizational leadership, trafficking patterns, smuggling infrastructure, or smuggling methods. This may include disruptive actions taken by another agency or government at the request of, or in coordination, with the INS. Dismantlement: occurs when an identified organization is no longer capable of operating as a coordinated criminal enterprise. Data Collection and Storage: Data are collected in the Performance Analysis System (PAS) and through manual tracking. INS collects investigations data in the PAS which contains aggregate case data and workyears for specific categories of activities.  The field enters data into PAS each month. Data Validation and Verification: PAS verification is conducted by the Statistics Office of the Office of Policy and Planning. The statistics are corroborated through submission audits; and logic, range, and computational edits. The Office of Statistics produces monthly statistical and production reports. Some manual tracking is required for smuggling and fraud since performance categories for types of cases no longer exactly match the definitions and methodology of the existing PAS categories.  This manual case information is collected and verified by headquarters staff. Data Limitations: PAS records are complete with 95% of field office records entered within the first 8 working days of the reporting month.  The remaining 5% are subsequently obtained through submission audits. Since PAS data are manually consolidated at an office level, audits of individual case records cannot be performed.

The growing volume and sophistication of alien smuggling organizations poses a threat to the national security of the U.S. to the success of the INS’ Border Control and Interior Enforcement Strategies.   Public corruption and lax immigration controls in source and transit countries contribute to a smuggling organization's ability to move large groups of migrants from virtually any country in the world to the U.S. 

The National Anti-Smuggling Strategy focuses on deterring, disrupting, and dismantling major smuggling organizations operating in the U.S., source, and transit countries. After September 11, 2001, the INS Anti-Smuggling Strategy placed significant emphasis on targeting alien smuggling organizations that present threats to national security.  Terrorists and their associates are likely to align with specific alien smuggling networks to obtain entry into the U.S. Some smuggling organizations utilize their illicit profits to provide financial support to terrorist organizations.  INS activity in this area will target specific smuggling corridors, and will emphasize long-term, complex investigations targeting smuggling organizations that present a threat to national security.  Specific investigative targets have been identified, based on recommendations from the Interagency Working Group (including INS, FBI, DOJ, and the Intelligence Community) on alien smuggling.

To effectively combat threats to our security, INS targets smuggling organizations with ties to extremists overseas.  Targeting these groups in source and transit countries increases the ability to protect our homeland, increases our intelligence gathering efforts, enhances our efforts at the border, and enhances our efforts to completely dismantle those organizations that present the greatest threats to our security.

Performance:

Performance Measure: DISCONTINUED MEASURE: Targeted Alien Smuggling & Trafficking Organizations Identified, Disrupted, and Dismantled [INS] (NOTE: This indicator is being discontinued - the program has been transferred to the Department of Homeland Security)
            FY 2002 Target:
            Identify 3, Disrupt 1, Dismantle 0
            FY 2002 Actual:
            Identified 16, Disrupted 7, Dismantled 1
            Discussion: INS exceeded its goals in FY 2002 for the number of targeted alien smuggling and trafficking organizations identified and disrupted.  INS conducted investigations of the most significant alien smuggling organizations and alien smugglers.  Many of the operations were conducted in Central and South America, particularly in Guatemala, Mexico, Ecuador, and the Caribbean.  The majority of the 16 organizations identified and the 7 organizations disrupted were operating in this area of the world.  

Background/Program Objectives:

D Data Collection and Storage: Data are compiled daily on the G-23.34 Workload summary submitted by INS offices in respective foreign countries and reported to the District Office level. The District Office forwards that data to the Office of International Affairs and to the Performance Analysis System (PAS) database. Data Validation and Verification: On a monthly basis, overseas district offices report a summary of the number of interceptions to the Office of International Affairs. The same information is provided to the INS PAS. Data Limitations: Major discrepancies in the collection of data have been identified, corrective action is underway, and expected to be completed prior to the end of FY 2002.

INS enforcement activity overseas is dedicated to halting illegal immigration at its source and in transit in order to safeguard our borders. By intercepting mala fide and undocumented travelers; targeting and prosecuting known alien smugglers and traffickers, disrupting smuggling operations that may support potential terrorists, and repatriating migrants involved in these operations, INS’ efforts overseas are keeping our borders safe and keeping out individuals who present national security concerns. Targeted enforcement actions overseas strengthen the legal immigration process and save INS costly processing, detention, and removal of aliens who may gain access illegally to the United States. 

Expanded INS enforcement-dedicated resources overseas will result in stronger and more coordinated investigations, higher numbers of mala fide and undocumented interceptions will occur, thus pushing back our borders and increasing security. These actions will send a clear message to potential terrorists, criminals and undocumented migrants that their efforts to violate our borders will not succeed. 

Performance:

Performance Measure: DISCONTINUED MEASURE: Interception of Mala Fide and Offshore Travelers en route to the United States [INS] (NOTE: This indicator is being discontinued - the program has been transferred to the Department of Homeland Security)
(NOTE: Major discrepancies in the collection of data were identified and corrected in FY 2002.)
            FY 2002 Target: 20,000
            FY 2002 Actual: 90,000
            Discussion: The FY 2002 target was exceeded due to Operation Bus Bound, which was conducted in cooperation with Mexico and Guatemala which resulted significant increases in interceptions of undocumented aliens enroute to the U.S. 

Background/Program Objectives:

D Data Definition: Unexecuted Final Orders – Removable Aliens: Aliens that have been issued final orders of removal but who have not been removed at the time of the report.  Some of these aliens have been officially notified to report for their deportation, but have failed to do so. These are termed “absconders.  Aliens “not readily removable:” include those who are incarcerated, officially designated as in a Temporary Protected Status, and aliens from countries with whom the US does not have repatriation agreements. Expedited Removal:  The formal removal of an alien ordered removed by the INS after having been inspected and found to be inadmissible based on having no documents or fraudulent documents. Data Collection and Storage: INS collects removal and detention data in the Deportable Alien Control System (DACS) case tracking system.  Data is input daily from physical Alien-files, primarily by INS Deportation Program staff, and to a lesser extent, inspectors and agents. DACS is updated throughout the life cycle of the case. Data Validation and Verification: DACS verification occurs through the headquarters DACS quality team, file reviews, comparison with monthly statistical reports, INSPECT team reviews, and district status reports and call-up lists.  The Statistics Office of the Office of Policy and Planning conducts monthly quality reviews of DACS data. The verification of an alien’s lawful status by the Law Enforcement Support Center (LESC) includes interfaces with DACS and other corporate information systems such as the Central Index System (CIS).  INS also interfaces with the NCIC to report wanted and deported alien felons. Data Limitations: DACS removals records are complete, with 99 percent of total removals records entered within 6 months of the close of the fiscal year. A small but significant number of detention records (approximately 7 percent of over one hundred thousand records) are incomplete. The long-range plan is for DACS to migrate to the Enforcement Case Tracking System (ENFORCE) that will have the capability to track detention and removal cases.  A new system the ENFORCE Removal Module (EREM) should permit the reduction of data entry errors, increase completeness and accuracy of data retrieval and provide greater data integrity.

INS is legally required to remove aliens who have received formal removal orders or who have volunteered to be repatriated.  A fundamental part of this mission is to ensure the removal of the criminal element in the alien population. INS is adopting new policies and procedures to improve the effectiveness of the Institutional Removal Program, a program designed to identify and remove incarcerated criminal aliens by means of administrative or hearing processes before their release from custody.  Focusing on the criminal alien removals enhances the promotion of public safety.

Another challenge is identifying and removing persons who are in the U.S. illegally, including monitoring alien overstays. Knowing who has entered and who has departed our country in real time is an important element in enforcing our laws.  The Data Management Improvement Act of 2000 requires INS to develop a fully-automated, integrated entry-exit data collection system and deploy this system at airports and seaports by the end of FY 2003; at the 50 largest land ports-of-entry (POEs) by the end of FY 2004; and all other POEs by the end of FY 2005.  The legislation also requires a private sector role to ensure that any systems developed to collect data do not harm tourism or trade.

Performance:

Performance Measure: DISCONTINUED/REFINED MEASURE: Final Order Removals, Expedited Removals, and Unexecuted Orders formerly: Final Order Alien Removals [INS] (NOTE: This indicator is being discontinued - the program has been transferred to the Department of Homeland Security)
            FY 2002 Target:
            Criminal Removals: 65,000
            Non-Criminal Removals: 42,500
            Unexecuted Final Orders – Removable Aliens:  289,000
            FY 2002 Actual:
            Criminal Removals: 67,946
            Non-Criminal: 45,504
            Expedited Removals: 33,945
            Unexecuted Final Orders – Removable Aliens 406,000
            Discussion:  INS exceeded both the criminal and non-criminal removal targets for FY 2002. INS re-evaluated the unexecuted final orders measure in FY 2002.  After an in-depth review and validation of the data encompassing all active cases in the INS database, including absconders and all other forms of unexecuted final order cases, INS revised the measure to include all removable aliens, not just absconders. As of September 30, 2002, there was a 406,000 case backlog of removable unexecuted final orders and a 196,000 case backlog of not readily removable unexecuted final orders of removal, for a total of 602,000 unexecuted orders.  [NOTE: Aliens “not readily removable” include those who are incarcerated, officially designated as in a Temporary Protected Status, and those who are nationals of Laos, Vietnam or Cuba (countries with whom the US does not have repatriation agreements).]