Appendix D. Scope and Methodology
The National Drug Threat Assessment 2008 is a comprehensive assessment of the threat posed to the United States by the trafficking and abuse of illicit drugs. It was prepared through detailed analysis of the most recent law enforcement, intelligence, and public health data available to counterdrug agencies through the date of publication. While the delay in the development of some drug-related data or reporting may affect the accuracy of predictive analysis, the most recent reporting available was extensively incorporated into the report to overcome data deficiencies.
The National Drug Threat Assessment 2008 includes information provided by 3,050 state and local law enforcement agencies through the NDIC National Drug Threat Survey 2007 (NDTS). State and local law enforcement agencies also provided information through personal interviews with NDIC Field Program Specialists, a nationwide network of law enforcement professionals assembled by NDIC to promote information sharing among federal, state, and local law enforcement agencies.
The National Drug Threat Assessment 2008 addresses the trafficking and use of primary substances of abuse as well as the laundering of proceeds generated through illicit drug sales. It also addresses the role that DTOs and organized gangs serve in domestic drug trafficking. This assessment focuses only on national-level issues of strategic significance and is not intended to serve as a full reference document addressing all facets of drug trafficking and abuse.
Major substances of abuse are discussed in terms of their availability, production and cultivation, transportation, distribution, and demand. Drug trends are also identified and addressed for each OCDETF region.
Availability. To evaluate the availability of illicit drugs, analysts considered quantitative information on seizures, investigations, arrests, law enforcement surveys, laboratory analyses, drug purity or potency, and price. Qualitative data, such as the subjective views of individual agencies on availability and the relationship between individual drugs and crime, particularly violent crime, also were considered.
Production and Cultivation. To evaluate illicit drug production and cultivation, analysts considered accepted interagency estimates. Qualitative information pertaining to the presence and level of domestic and foreign activity, general trends in production or cultivation levels, involvement of organized criminal groups, toxicity and other related safety hazards, environmental effects, and associated criminal activity were also considered.
Transportation. To evaluate illicit drug transportation, analysts evaluated interagency estimates of the amounts of specific drugs destined for U.S. markets, involvement of organized criminal groups, smuggling and transportation methods, and indicators of changes in smuggling and transportation methods.
Distribution. The evaluation of illicit drug distribution was mostly qualitative. Analysts considered the extent to which specific drugs are distributed nationally, regionally, and in principal distribution centers based on law enforcement reporting. Also considered were qualitative data pertaining to the involvement of organized criminal groups, including their involvement in wholesale, midlevel, and retail distribution.27
Demand. The evaluation of the domestic demand for illicit drugs was based on accepted interagency estimates and data captured in national substance abuse indicators. Quantitative and qualitative information that was evaluated includes the estimated number of total users, prevalence of drug use among various age groups, emergency department information, and admissions to treatment facilities. The differing methodologies applied by national substance abuse indicators, as well as their inherent limitations, were considered and addressed in assessing domestic drug demand.
NDTS data used in this report do not imply that there is only one drug threat per state or region or that only one drug is available per state or region. A percentage given for a state or region represents the proportion of state and local law enforcement agencies in that state or region that identified a particular drug as their greatest threat or as available at low, moderate, or high levels. This assessment breaks the country into nine regions as shown in Map 1 in Appendix B. For representation of survey data by region, see Map 3 in Appendix B.
End Note
27. In this assessment, wholesale distribution refers to the level at which drugs are purchased directly from a source of supply and sold, typically to midlevel distributors, in pound, kilogram, or multiunit quantities. Midlevel distribution refers to the level at which drugs are purchased directly from wholesalers in pound, kilogram, or multiunit quantities and sold in smaller quantities to other midlevel distributors or to retail distributors. Retail distribution refers to the level at which drugs are sold directly to users.