Solid Economic Growth Predicted in Current State Forecast
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For Immediate Release: February 24, 2006
DBEDT Release News 06-07
HONOLULU--In its latest issue of the quarterly economic report, the Department of Business Economic Development and Tourism (DBEDT) projects a continued expansion of Hawaii’s economy. Solid growth is expected in employment, income and visitor arrivals through 2006.
Total wage and salary jobs are expected to increase 1.8 percent. Hawaii's personal income is expected to grow 3.2 percent in real terms this year. Visitor arrivals are forecast to increase 3.2 percent in 2006.
"We are pleased that the state’s economy has grown faster than the national average over the past three years,” said DBEDT Director Theodore E. Liu. "Based on our robust job growth and strong economic activities especially in the construction and visitor industries, we are optimistic about economic projections in the coming years."
During the fourth quarter of 2005, 630,600 people were employed in Hawaii, a new all-time quarterly employment peak. This employment level was 31,400 or 5.2 percent more than the fourth quarter of 2004. This is the highest ever quarterly-rate of growth in employment in Hawaii since 1977, the earliest year for which the employment data are recorded by the state.
For the year, employment was up 3.7 percent from 2004. Hawaii’s unemployment rate of 2.8 percent was the lowest in the nation in 2005. There were 16,550 new wage and salary jobs created in 2005, led by Natural Resources, Mining and Construction (+3,100 jobs), Professional and Business Services (+2,700 jobs), Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities (+2,350 jobs) and the Retail Trade (+2,250 jobs).
The tourism industry is expected to host a total of 7.7 million visitors this year, up 3.2 percent from a record year of 2005. Visitor spending should reach $12.4 billion in 2006 about 4.6 percent higher than 2005.
The DBEDT report contains projections for continued growth for the economy in 2006 and beyond. Real personal income growth is forecast to grow at 3.2 percent in 2006 and 2.8 in 2007. Total job growth is expected to be 1.8 percent in 2006 and stabilize at about 1.2 percent per year beyond 2006.
In calendar year 2005, State General Fund revenues increased by 16.4 percent compared with the previous year. General Excise Tax Revenues were up 13.7 percent for year, with net Individual income taxes up 17.2 percent.
The Department notes that the U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) is forecast to grow 3.3 percent in 2006, while Japan's GDP is expected to grow at a moderate 2.4 percent rate.
The Quarterly Statistical and Economic Report contains more than 100 tables of the most recent quarterly data on Hawaii's economy as well as narrative explanations of the trends in these data. The full report is available at http://www.hawaii.gov/dbedt/info/economic/data_reports.
2004 to 2009
| Economic Indicators | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (Actual) | (Forecast) | |||||
| Total population (thousands) | 1,262 | 1,275 | 1,289 | 1,303 | 1,317 | 1,330 |
| Visitor arrivals (thousands) | 6,992 | 7,433 ¹ | 7,671 | 7,863 | 8,052 | 8,245 |
| Visitor days (thousands) | 63,343 | 67,549 ¹ | 69,659 | 71,320 | 73,011 | 74,746 |
| Visitor expenditures (million dollars) | 10,862 | 11,808 ¹ | 12,354 | 12,996 | 13,652 | 14,328 |
| Honolulu CPI-U (1982-84=100) | 190.6 | 197.8 | 204.8 | 211.5 | 217.4 | 223.3 |
| Personal income (million dollars) | 41,176 | 44,387 ² | 47,406 | 50,345 | 53,114 | 55,929 |
| Real personal income (millions of 2000$) | 38,086 | 39,554 ² | 40,815 | 41,961 | 43,063 | 44,153 |
| Total wage & salary jobs (thousands) | 589.6 | 606.1 | 617.0 | 625.1 | 632.6 | 640.2 |
| Gross state product (million dollars) | 50,322 | 53,895 ² | 57,129 | 60,156 | 63,224 | 66,386 |
| Real gross state product (millions of 2000$) | 44,976 ³ | 46,675 ² | 48,082 | 49,347 | 50,500 | 51,681 |
| Gross state product deflator (2000=100) | 111.9 ³ | 115.5 ² | 118.8 | 121.9 | 125.2 | 128.5 |
| Annual Percentage Change | ||||||
| Total population | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| Visitor arrivals | 8.5 | 6.3 ¹ | 3.2 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.4 |
| Visitor days | 6.9 | 6.6 ¹ | 3.1 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 |
| Visitor expenditures | 8.0 | 8.7 ¹ | 4.6 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| Honolulu CPI-U | 3.3 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 2.7 |
| Personal income | 8.0 | 7.8 ² | 6.8 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 5.3 |
| Real personal income | 4.5 | 3.9 ² | 3.2 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.5 |
| Total wage & salary jobs | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Gross state product | 7.8 | 7.1 ² | 6.0 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 5.0 |
| Real gross state product | 4.7 ³ | 3.8 ² | 3.0 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| Gross state product deflator | 3.0 ³ | 3.2 ² | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.6 |
2/ Forecast.
3/ DBEDT-adjusted U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis accelerated estimate.
Source: Hawaii State Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism, February 22, 2006.
For more information, contact:
Dave Young
Communications
Phone: (808) 587-1212
Email: dyoung@dbedt.hawaii.gov