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Climate of 2007
November in Historical Perspective

Including Boreal Fall

National Climatic Data Center
18 December 2007

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The data presented in this report are preliminary. Ranks and anomalies may change as more complete data are received and processed. The most current data may be accessed via the Global Surface Temperature Anomalies page.

Introduction

Temperature anomalies for September - November 2007 and November 2007 are shown on the dot maps below. The dot maps, below left, provide a spatial representation of anomalies calculated from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) data set of land surface stations using a 1961-1990 base period. The dot maps, below right, are a product of a merged land surface and sea surface temperature anomaly analysis developed by Smith and Reynolds (2005). Temperature anomalies with respect to the 1961-1990 mean for land and ocean are analyzed separately and then merged to form the global analysis. Additional information on this product is available.

Throughout the year, anomalous warm conditions covered much of the globe. The January-November 2007 map of temperature anomalies shows the presence of warmer-than-average temperatures across all land areas, with the exception of the southern countries located in South America. Warmer-than-average Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) were present in the Atlantic, Indian, and the Northwest Pacific oceans. Cooler-than-average conditions were observed in the Niño 1+2 and 3 regions, the northeastern Pacific and some areas in the southern oceans.

During the boreal fall, there were above average temperatures across northwestern Africa, Australia, eastern Brazil, Asia, and the U.S., including Alaska. Cooler-than-average conditions occurred in central Europe.

NOTE: We apologize for the inconvenience, but the Land and Ocean blended Temperature Anomalies for the boreal fall (September-November) will be temporarily unavailable.

During November, above average temperatures were observed across northwestern Africa, eastern Brazil, central and western contiguous U.S., Alaska, southern Australia, and much of Asia. Meanwhile, SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region were below average from west of the Date Line eastward to the South American coast. These conditions are indicative of a moderate-strength ENSO cold event (La Niña). Please see the latest ENSO discussion for additional information.

The mean position of the upper level ridges of high pressure and troughs of low pressure (depicted by positive and negative 500-millibar height anomalies on the September-November 2007 map and the November map) are generally reflected by areas of positive and negative temperature anomalies at the surface, respectively. For other Global products see the Climate Monitoring Global Products page.

Images of sea surface temperature conditions are available for all weeks during 2007 at the weekly SST page.

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Temperature Rankings and Graphics

Current Month / Seasonal / Year-to-date

Effective with the February 2006 report, NCDC transitioned from the use of the Operational Global Surface Temperature Index (Quayle et al. 1999) to the blended land and ocean dataset developed by Smith and Reynolds (2005). The differences between the two methods are discussed in Smith et al. (2005).

The January-November year-to-date period ranked as the fourth warmest January-November since records began in 1880 for combined global land and ocean surface temperatures, while the global land surface temperature ranked warmest on record. Meanwhile, the combined global land and ocean surface temperature for boreal fall (September-November 2007) was eighth warmest on record, and the land surface temperature was 2nd warmest, behind 2005. As for the month of November, the land surface temperature ranked fourth warmest in the 127-year record.

November	Anomaly	Rank	Warmest (or Next Warmest) Year on Record
Global Land Ocean Land and Ocean	+1.00°C (+1.80°F) +0.25°C (+0.45°F) +0.46°C (+0.83°F)	4th warmest 15th warmest 8th warmest	2004 (+1.40°C/2.52°F) 1997 (+0.54°C/0.97°F) 2004 (+0.73°C/1.131°F)
Northern Hemisphere Land Ocean Land and Ocean	+1.19°C (+2.14°F) +0.33°C (+0.59°F) +0.66°C (+1.19°F)	4th warmest 10th warmest 5th warmest	2001 (+1.73°C/3.11°F) 2006 (+0.66°C/1.19°F) 2004 (+0.97°C/1.75°F)
Southern Hemisphere Land Ocean Land and Ocean	+0.46°C (+0.83°F) +0.20°C (+0.36°F) +0.24°C (+0.43°F)	11th warmest 30th warmest 24th warmest	1982 (+1.45°C/2.61°F) 1997 (+0.55°C/0.99°F) 1997 (+0.58°C/1.04°F)

September-November	Anomaly	Rank	Warmest (or Next Warmest) Year on Record
Global Land Ocean Land and Ocean	+0.93°C (+1.67°F) +0.33°C (+0.59°F) +0.49°C (+0.88°F)	2nd warmest 10th warmest 8th warmest	2005 (+1.14°C/2.05°F) 1997 (+0.54°C/0.97°F) 2005 (+0.64°C/1.15°F)
Northern Hemisphere Land Ocean Land and Ocean	+0.99°C (+1.78°F) +0.39°C (+0.70°F) +0.62°C (+1.12°F)	2nd warmest 8th warmest 6th warmest	2005 (+1.28°C/2.30°F) 2006 (+0.64°C/1.15°F) 2005 (+0.83°C/1.49°F)
Southern Hemisphere Land Ocean Land and Ocean	+0.76°C (+1.37°F) +0.27°C (+0.49°F) +0.34°C (+0.61°F)	5th warmest 21st warmest 12th warmest	1997 (+0.85°C/1.53°F) 1997 (+0.55°C/0.99°F) 1997 (+0.59°C/1.06°F)

January-November	Anomaly	Rank	Warmest (or Next Warmest) Year on Record
Global Land Ocean Land and Ocean	+1.03°C (+1.85°F) +0.39°C (+0.70°F) +0.56°C (+1.01°F)	warmest 9th warmest 4th warmest	2005 (+0.98°C/1.76°F) 1998 (+0.50°C/0.90°F) 2005 (+0.61°C/1.10°F)
Northern Hemisphere Land Ocean Land and Ocean	+1.20°C (+2.16°F) +0.43°C (+0.77°F) +0.72°C (+1.30°F)	warmest 6th warmest 2nd warmest	2005 (+1.03°C/1.85°F) 2005 (+0.55°C/0.99°F) 2005 (+0.73°C/1.31°F)
Southern Hemisphere Land Ocean Land and Ocean	+0.55°C (+0.99°F) +0.36°C (+0.65°F) +0.39°C (+0.70°F)	7th warmest 9th warmest 9th warmest	2005 (+0.84°C/1.51°F) 1998 (+0.51°C/0.92°F) 1998 (+0.55°C/0.99°F)

The most current data may be accessed via the Global Surface Temperature Anomalies page.

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Precipitation

The maps below represent anomaly values based on the GHCN data set of land surface stations using a base period of 1961-1990. During boreal fall, above average precipitation fell over areas that include the Philippines, southeastern Europe, parts of western Africa, and the southwestern Alaska. Drier-than-average conditions were observed in south central and eastern regions of the contiguous U.S., the south and eastern parts of Brazil, and parts of India, and eastern Asia.

During November 2007, above average precipitation fell over areas that include parts of southeastern Europe, eastern Australia, and the Philippines. Drier-than-average conditions were observed across the eastern half of the contiguous U.S., Japan, southeastern China, eastern Brazil, and Argentina. Additional details on flooding and drought can also be found on the November Global Hazards page.

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ENSO SST Analysis

Below average sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies extended west from the Date Line to the western coast of North and South America. These conditions are indicative of a moderate-strength ENSO cold event (shown in the adjacent animation of weekly sea surface temperature anomalies). A comprehensive summary of November 2007 ENSO conditions can be found on the ENSO monitoring page. For the latest advisory on ENSO conditions go to NOAA's Climate Prediction center (CPC) and the CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion.

Images of sea surface temperature conditions are available for all weeks since 2003 at the weekly SST page.

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Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover Extent

Although much of Europe and the eastern parts of the contigous U.S. and Canada experienced below average temperatures with Europe having an early winter season, the mean Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent during November 2007 was below average. This was the 14th lowest snow cover extent on record. The mean Northern Hemisphere November snow cover extent for the 1967-2007 period of record is 34.1 million square kilometers.

Snow cover for November 2007 across North America was below average, being the 14th lowest extent since records began in 1967. The mean North America November snow cover extent is 13.4 million square kilometers for the 1967-2007 period of record.

As depicted in the time series to the right, Eurasia's snow cover extent in November was below average and was the 16th lowest extent over the 41-year historical period. On average, Eurasian Boreal November snow cover extent is 20.6 million square kilometers for the 1967-2007 period of record.

Data were provided by the Global Snow Laboratory, Rutgers University.

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Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Extent

According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center, the November 2007 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent, which is measured from passive microwave instruments onboard NOAA satellites, was below the 1979-2000 mean. This was the second least sea ice extent in November, behind 2006, since records began in 1979. Sea ice extent for November has decreased at a rate of 4.7%/decade (since satellite records began in 1979) as temperatures in the high latitude Northern Hemisphere have risen at a rate of approximately 0.37°C/decade over the same period. For further information on the Northern Hemisphere snow and ice conditions, please visit the NSIDC News page, provided by the NOAA's National Snow and Ice Data center (NSIDC).

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Troposphere

Temperatures above the Earth's surface are measured within the lower troposphere, middle troposphere, and stratosphere using in-situ balloon-borne instruments (radiosondes) and polar-orbiting satellites (NOAA's TIROS-N). The radiosonde and satellite records have been adjusted to remove time-dependent biases (artificialities caused by changes in radiosonde instruments and measurement practices as well as changes in satellite instruments and orbital features through time).

Lower Troposphere

Current Month / Seasonal / Year-to-date

These temperatures are for the lowest 8 km (5 miles) of the atmosphere. Information on the UAH and RSS sources of troposphere data is available.

November	Anomaly	Rank	Warmest (or Next Warmest) Year on Record	Trend
UAH low-trop	+0.21°C/0.38°F	8th warmest	2005 (+0.39°C/0.70°F)	+0.15°C/decade
*RSS low-trop	-0.01°C/-0.03°F	17th warmest	2003 (+0.38°C/0.68°F)	+0.16°C/decade

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September- November	Anomaly	Rank	Warmest (or Next Warmest) Year on Record	Trend
UAH low-trop	+0.21°C/0.38°F	8th warmest	2005 (+0.38°C/0.69°F)	+0.16°C/decade
*RSS low-trop	+0.07°C/0.12°F	15th warmest	1998 (+0.41°C/0.74°F)	+0.17°C/decade

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January- November	Anomaly	Rank	Warmest (or Next Warmest) Year on Record	Trend
UAH low-trop	+0.30°C/0.53°F	4th warmest	1998 (+0.54°C/0.96°F)	+0.14°C/decade
*RSS low-trop	+0.18°C/0.33°F	9th warmest	1998 (+0.60°C/1.08°F)	+0.18°C/decade

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Mid-troposphere

Current Month / Seasonal / Year-to-date

These temperatures are for the atmospheric layer centered in the mid-troposphere (approximately 3-10 km (2-6 miles) above the Earth's surface), which also includes a portion of the lower stratosphere. (The MSU channel used to measure mid-tropospheric temperatures receives about 25 percent of its signal above 10 km (6 miles)). Because the stratosphere has cooled due to increasing greenhouse gases in the troposphere and losses of ozone in the stratosphere, the stratospheric contribution to the tropospheric average, as measured from satellites, may create an artificial component of cooling to the mid-troposphere temperatures. The University of Washington (UW) versions of the UAH and RSS analyses attempt to remove the stratospheric influence from the mid-troposphere measurements, and as a result the UW versions tend to have a larger warming trend than either the UAH or RSS versions. For additional information, please see NCDC's Microwave Sounding Unit page.

The radiosonde data used in this global analysis were developed using the Lanzante, Klein, Seidel (2003) ("LKS") bias-adjusted dataset and the First Difference Method (Free et al. 2004). Additional details are available. Satellite data have been adjusted by the Global Hydrology and Climate center at the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH). An independent analysis is also performed by Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) and a third analysis has been performed by Dr. Qiang Fu of the University of Washington (UW) (Fu et al. 2004)** to remove the influence of the stratosphere on the mid-troposphere value. Global averages from radiosonde data are available from 1958 to present, while satellite measurements began in 1979.

Radiosonde measurements indicate that for the January-November year-to-date period, temperatures in the mid-troposphere were 0.56°C (1.01°F) above average, resulting in the fourth warmest January-November since global measurements began in 1958. However, as shown in the table below, satellite measurement of the January-November year-to-date period for the middle troposphere varied from fourth to fifth warmest on record.

During the boreal fall, radiosonde measurements indicate that temperatures were 0.51°C (0.92°F) above average, giving September-November a rank of sixth warmest on record. The table below shows that satellite measurements for the boreal fall varied from seventh to ninth warmest on record.

The global mid-troposphere temperatures were warmer than average in November 2007, as shown in the table below. Satellite measurement for November 2007 ranked from tenth to twelfth warmest on record depending on the analysis.

November	Anomaly	Rank	Warmest (or Next Warmest) Year on Record	Trend
UAH mid-trop	+0.05°C/0.09°F	11th warmest	1990 (+0.23°C/0.41°F)	+0.03°C/decade
*RSS mid-trop	+0.09°C/0.16°F	11th warmest	2002 (+0.33°C/0.60°F)	+0.09°C/decade
**UW-UAH mid-trop	+0.16°C/0.28°F	10th warmest	1990 (+0.31°C/0.56°F)	+0.11°C/decade
**UW-*RSS mid-trop	+0.18°C/0.33°F	12th warmest	2002 (+0.40°C/0.73°F)	+0.16°C/decade

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September- November	Anomaly	Rank	Warmest (or Next Warmest) Year on Record	Trend
UAH mid-trop	+0.10°C/0.19°F	9th warmest	1998 (+0.29°C/0.52°F)	+0.07°C/decade
*RSS mid-trop	+0.15°C/0.27°F	8th warmest	1998 (+0.34°C/0.61°F)	+0.12°C/decade
**UW-UAH mid-trop	+0.20°C/0.37°F	8th warmest	1998 (+0.44°C/0.80°F)	+0.14°C/decade
**UW-*RSS mid-trop	+0.24°C/0.44°F	7th warmest	1998 (+0.48°C/0.86°F)	+0.19°C/decade
RATPAC	+0.51°C/0.92°F	6th warmest	2006 (+0.76°C/1.37°F)	+0.16°C/decade

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January- November	Anomaly	Rank	Warmest (or Next Warmest) Year on Record	Trend
UAH mid-trop	+0.17°C/+0.30°F	5th warmest	1998 (+0.47°C/0.85°F)	+0.06°C/decade
*RSS mid-trop	+0.22°C/0.40°F	5th warmest	1998 (+0.53°C/0.95°F)	+0.12°C/decade
**UW-UAH mid-trop	+0.28°C/+0.50°F	4th warmest	1998 (+0.61°C/1.10°F)	+0.13°C/decade
**UW-*RSS mid-trop	+0.32°C/+0.57°F	5th warmest	1998 (+0.66°C/1.18°F)	+0.18°C/decade
RATPAC	+0.56°C/1.01°F	4th warmest	1998 (+0.75°C/1.36°F)	+0.15°C/decade

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Stratosphere

Current Month / Seasonal

The table below summarizes stratospheric conditions for November 2007. On average, the stratosphere is located approximately between 16-23 km (10-14 miles) above the Earth's surface. Over the last decade, stratospheric temperatures have been below average in part due to the depletion of ozone. The large positive anomaly in 1982 was caused by the volcanic eruption of El Chichon in Mexico, and the sharp jump in temperature in 1991 was a result of the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines. In both cases the temperatures returned to pre-eruption levels within two years.

November	Anomaly	Rank	Coolest Year on Record
UAH stratosphere	-0.57°C (-1.03°F)	7th coolest	2000 (-0.87°C/-1.57°F)
*RSS stratosphere	-0.52°C (-0.94°F)	8th coolest	2000 (-0.85°C/-1.53°F)

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September- November	Anomaly	Rank	Coolest Year on Record
UAH stratosphere	-0.62°C (-1.12°F)	3rd coolest	2000 (-0.78°C/-1.41°F)
*RSS stratosphere	-0.60°C (-1.09°F)	4th coolest	2000 (-0.75°C/-1.34°F)

*Version 03_0

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For additional details on precipitation and temperatures in November, see the Global Hazards page.

References

Christy, John R., R.W. Spencer, and W.D. Braswell, 2000: MSU tropospheric Temperatures: Dataset Construction and Radiosonde Comparisons. J. of Atmos. and Oceanic Technology, 17, 1153-1170.

Free, M., D.J. Seidel, J.K. Angell, J. Lanzante, I. Durre and T.C. Peterson (2005) Radiosonde Atmospheric Temperature Products for Assessing Climate (RATPAC): A new dataset of large-area anomaly time series, J. Geophys. Res., 10.1029/2005JD006169.

Free, M., J.K. Angell, I. Durre, J. Lanzante, T.C. Peterson and D.J. Seidel(2004), Using first differences to reduce inhomogeneity in radiosonde temperature datasets, J. Climate, 21, 4171-4179.

Fu, Q., C.M. Johanson, S.G. Warren, and D.J. Seidel, 2004: Contribution of stratospheric cooling to satellite-inferred tropospheric temperature trends. Nature, 429, 55-58.

Lanzante, J.R., S.A. Klein, and D.J. Seidel (2003a), Temporal homogenization of monthly radiosonde temperature data. Part I: Methodology, J. Climate, 16, 224-240.

Lanzante, J.R., S.A. Klein, and D.J. Seidel (2003b), Temporal homogenization of monthly radiosonde temperature data. Part II: trends, sensitivities, and MSU comparison, J. Climate, 16, 241 262.

Mears, Carl A., M.C. Schabel, F.J. Wentz, 2003: A Reanalysis of the MSU Channel 2 tropospheric Temperature Record. J. Clim, 16, 3650-3664.

Peterson, T.C. and R.S. Vose, 1997: An Overview of the Global Historical Climatology Network Database. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 78, 2837-2849.

Quayle, R.G., T.C. Peterson, A.N. Basist, and C. S. Godfrey, 1999: An operational near-real-time global temperature index. Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 333-335.

Smith, T.M., and R.W. Reynolds (2005), A global merged land air and sea surface temperature reconstruction based on historical observations (1880-1997), J. Clim., 18, 2021-2036.

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For questions about this report, please contact:

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email: Jay.Lawrimore@noaa.gov

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David Easterling
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email: David.Easterling@noaa.gov

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