DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 1053 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2008
...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...
THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM)...ISSUED THROUGH THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER ON AUGUST 26...DEPICTS SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY AND INTO SUTTON COUNTY. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...BENEFICIAL RAINS OVER THE LAST MONTH HAVE BROUGHT IMPROVEMENTS. MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE DESIGNATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HEARTLAND...SOUTHERN CONCHO VALLEY AND NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. MUCH OF THE BIG COUNTRY IS NOW EXPERIENCING NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...
FIRE DANGER IMPACTS. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO THREATEN PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. MUCH OF THE SUMMER WAS DOMINATED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRYING WINDS.
AS OF AUGUST 28...THE FOLLOWING WEST CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES SUPPORT A COUNTY WIDE OUTDOOR BURN BAN.
BROWN...COKE...CONCHO...CROCKETT...KIMBLE...MENARD...MCCULLOCH... NOLAN...SAN SABA AND SUTTON.
THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE USES THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) AS A SYSTEM FOR RELATING CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED FIRE BEHAVIOR. IT IS A NUMERICAL INDEX CALCULATED DAILY FOR EACH COUNTY. EACH NUMBER IS AN ESTIMATE OF THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION...IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...NEEDED TO BRING THE SOIL BACK TO SATURATION. THE INDEX RANGES FROM 0 TO 800...WITH 0 REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL AND 800 A COMPLETELY DRY SOIL. AS OF AUGUST 28...THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX SHOWS THAT MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION FALLS WITHIN THE 400 TO 600 RANGE...WHICH IS CHARACTERIZED AS TYPICAL OF LATE SUMMER... EARLY FALL. IN THIS RANGE...LOWER LITTER AND DUFF LAYERS ACTIVELY CONTRIBUTE TO FIRE INTENSITY AND WILL BURN ACTIVELY. NOTE THAT FIRE DANGER CAN CHANGE QUICKLY FROM DAY TO DAY AS WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY. THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE ADVISES TO WATCH OUT FOR KEY WEATHER THRESHOLDS OF WINDS ABOVE 15 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 25 PERCENT. WHEN THESE THRESHOLDS ARE EXCEEDED...EXPECT THE FIRE DANGER WILL BE ELEVATED.
AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS. ACCORDING TO THE TEXAS CROP WEATHER REPORT ISSUED AUGUST 27 BY THE TEXAS A&M AGRICULTURE PROGRAM...THE FOLLOWING AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS WERE NOTED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...THE REGION SAW MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGH HUMIDITY...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WAS REPORTED IN MANY AREAS AND PRODUCERS EXPECTED TO START PLANTING SMALL GRAINS SOON...SOME PRODUCERS BEGAN TO TAKE A SECOND HAY CUTTING...RECENT RAINFALL IMPROVED RANGE AND PASTURE CONDITIONS...WATER LEVELS IN STOCK TANKS AND PONDS ROSE... LIVESTOCK CONDITIONS DECLINED...PECANS BEGAN NUT-FILL BUT HULLS APPEARED UNDERSIZED AND A LIGHT CROP WAS PREDICTED.
CLIMATE SUMMARY...
PRECIPITATION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WAS RELATIVELY LOW MAY THROUGH JULY. HOWEVER...IN AUGUST...RAINFALL OF 2 TO 6 INCHES FELL ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I20. THROUGH AUGUST 28...ABILENE MEASURED 6.12 INCHES...AND SAN ANGELO MEASURED 3.08 INCHES.
PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
EL NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION OR ENSO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS CONTINUED DURING JULY 2008...AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN REMAINED NEAR AVERAGE. BASED ON CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS...RECENT TRENDS...AND MODEL FORECASTS...ENSO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE FALL 2008. DURING ENSO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS... THERE APPEARS TO BE NO DIRECT SIGNIFICANT SIGNAL ON THE INFLUENCE WITH PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE PATTERNS... DURING THE FALL MONTHS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
THE PERIOD FROM AUGUST THROUGH OCTOBER IS A CLIMATOLOGICALLY WETTER PERIOD THAN DURING THE MID SUMMER MONTHS...ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THE REGION AVERAGES AROUND 2.5 TO 3 INCHES EACH MONTH. THE 90 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FALL 2008 FROM SEPTEMBER THROUGH NOVEMBER...FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...INDICATES THAT TEMPERATURES WILL MOST LIKELY AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
SINCE THE 90 DAY OUTLOOK SHOWS NO CLEAR SIGNAL FOR ABOVE... NEAR...OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...WE HOPE THAT CLIMATOLOGY WILL PLAY OUT THIS FALL. PLEASE REMEMBER THESE LONG RANGE OUTLOOKS DO NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF INDIVIDUAL WEATHER SYSTEMS AND SMALLER SCALE WEATHER PHENOMENA...LIKE STATIONARY OR SLOW MOVING TROPICAL SYSTEMS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS CAN VARY CONSIDERABLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES WHEN TROPICAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OCCUR. FALL IS THE SEASON WITH THE HIGHEST FREQUENCY OF TROPICAL RELATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS PART OF TEXAS.
THE LATEST U.S. SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK FOR FALL 2008...ISSUED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...SHOWS THAT DROUGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I20.
HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS... ACCORDING TO THE USGS WATERWATCH...STREAMFLOWS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ARE ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF AUGUST 29...
/ CURRENT CONSERVATION CURRENT % / ELEVATION CAPACITY CAPACITY CONSERVATION RESERVOIR (FT) (AC-FT) (AC-FT) CAPACITY
FORT PHANTOM HILL 1635.19 70036 67300 96 LAKE STAMFORD 1414.01 51570 38670 75 HUBBARD CREEK 1180.58 318070 283310 89 HORDS CREEK LAKE 1895.18 8112 3520 62 LAKE BROWNWOOD 1420.77 131428 107660 82 E.V. SPENCE 1846.50 517272 63910 12 O.C. FISHER 1865.92 119200 7040 6 O.H. IVIE 1538.08 554340 334700 60 TWIN BUTTES (N+S) 1918.34 186200 64230 34 LAKE NASWORTHY 1871.11 10108 8590 85
NEXT ISSUANCE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AS NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS.
RELATED WEB SITES...
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
OUR LOCAL DROUGHT WEB PAGE... HTTP://WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/SJT/HTML/CLIMATE/DROUGHT.HTML U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML NOAA DROUGHT PAGE...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV/ OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST... HTTP://WWW.MET.TAMU.EDU/OSC/ NWS...HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/ USGS...HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/ USACE...HTTP://WWW.MVR.USACE.ARMY.MIL/ CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/...HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS.
QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 7654 KNICKERBOCKER ROAD SAN ANGELO TEXAS 76904 PHONE: 325-944-9445 NWS.SANANGELO@NOAA.GOV
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