Hurricane GUSTAV

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HURRICANE GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER  23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

...GUSTAV EVEN A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT CLOSES IN ON WESTERN CUBA...
 
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
 
AT 1100 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER
FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO DRY TORTUGAS.  A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...ISLA DE
JUVENTUD...MATANZAS...AND CIENFUEGOS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCE
OF VILLA CLARA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN
PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...AND
CAMAGUEY.
 
INTERESTS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.  A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE
ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.1 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES...
 85 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND ABOUT 185 MILES...
295 KM...EAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
 
GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.  ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL PASS OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CUBA TODAY AND TONIGHT...EMERGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY ON SUNDAY...AND REACH THE NORTHERN
GULF BY MONDAY MORNING.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE.  FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS GUSTAV PASSES NEAR AND OVER WESTERN CUBA.  ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AFTER GUSTAV REACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES...260 KM.
 
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON RECENT REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE
AND NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH 14 TO 19 FEET POSSIBLE NEAR
WHERE THE CENTER OF GUSTAV CROSSES WESTERN CUBA...INCLUDING THE ISLE
OF YOUTH.  STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE IN THE DRY TORTUGAS AS GUSTAV PASSES TO ITS WEST.
 
GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES.  RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER FLORIDA KEYS
AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA BY SUNDAY MORNING.
 
REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...21.2 N...82.1 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
 
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