Tropical Storm GUSTAV

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TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
2100 UTC THU AUG 28 2008
 
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR WESTERN CUBA...FOR THE PROVINCES OF ISLA DE
JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA.  A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE PROVINCE OF
MATANZAS.  A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.  A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
GRANMA.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N  76.6W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  45SE   0SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N  76.6W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N  76.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 18.4N  77.8W...INLAND OVER JAMAICA
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 19.1N  79.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  25SE  25SW  40NW.
34 KT... 75NE  60SE  60SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 20.1N  81.7W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  75SE  75SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 21.5N  83.6W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  90SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 25.0N  87.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 28.0N  89.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 30.0N  91.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N  76.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
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