Tropical Depression ARTHUR

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012008
500 PM EDT SUN JUN 01 2008
 
WHILE ARTHUR'S OVERALL SATELLITE APPEARANCE CONTINUES TO DEGRADE...A
RECENT REPORT FROM SHIP A8MI2 OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
INDICATES THE MAX WINDS REMAIN NEAR 30 KT.  ADDITIONALLY...
CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  THUS...THE
CYCLONE WILL BE MAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THIS
ADVISORY.  STILL...WITH THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION HAVING BEEN
INLAND FOR MORE THAN 24 HOURS AND INCREASINGLY HIGH TERRAIN IN ITS
ANTICIPATED PATH...ARTHUR APPEARS TO BE ON BORROWED TIME.  THE
CYCLONE COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER TONIGHT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...245/5...IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED AND A
CONTINUED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.  ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...ARTHUR...OR ITS
REMNANTS...IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO.  THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH.
 
ARTHUR WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
GUATEMALA...SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND BELIZE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/2100Z 17.7N  91.1W    30 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     02/0600Z 17.4N  91.8W    25 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     02/1800Z 17.0N  92.9W    25 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     03/0600Z 16.9N  93.9W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     03/1800Z 16.9N  95.0W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     04/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
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FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN
 
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