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Tropical Depression JOSEPHINE
ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102008
500 AM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008
...CORRECTED FOR HEADER...
JOSEPHINE HAS FINALLY SUCCUMBED TO THE EFFECTS OF THE SUBSTANTIAL
SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR COUPLED WITH MARGINAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. WITH ONLY A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS FLARING UP IN
THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE...THE SYSTEM NO LONGER CAN BE CONSIDERED A
TROPICAL CYCLONE.
THE REMNANT LOW OF JOSEPHINE IS MOVING AT 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT SOUTH
OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED AS IT ADVECTS
ALONG IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. THE TRACK IS JUST NORTH OF
THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND CLOSEST TO BAM-SHALLOW.
WITH THE STRONG SHEAR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS
BECAUSE OF AN UPPER CLOSED LOW NORTHWEST OF JOSEPHINE...
REGENERATION OF THE SYSTEM BACK INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT
LIKELY. HOWEVER...AT DAYS 3 AND 4 ALL GLOBAL MODELS DO SHOW THE
SHEAR RELAXING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM JOSEPHINE'S
REMNANTS. DESPITE THIS...NONE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST ANY
REGENERATION OF THE CYCLONE AT THE LONGER RANGE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST AGREES WITH THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND KEEPS JOSEPHINE
DISSIPATED.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/0900Z 16.8N 36.9W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
12HR VT 06/1800Z 17.5N 38.3W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 07/0600Z 18.5N 40.3W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 07/1800Z 19.7N 42.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 08/0600Z 20.9N 44.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 09/0600Z 23.5N 48.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/KNABB
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