Tropical Storm JOSEPHINE

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102008
1100 PM EDT WED SEP 03 2008
 
THE LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW A RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE TROPICAL
CYCLONE PATTERN WITH NO BANDING FEATURES AND ONLY A STRETCHED BURST
OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS
HAVE COME DOWN FROM SAB/TAFB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED
TO 45 KT IN LINE WITH THOSE ESTIMATES.  AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST
OF JOSEPHINE CONTINUES TO SHEAR THE STORM.  THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE
THE MAIN FACTOR TO MODULATE THE INTENSITY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST.  THUS A SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND THE NHC FORECAST
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.  MOST OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A DECREASE IN SHEAR BEYOND THREE DAYS...BUT
THERE MIGHT NOT BE MUCH LEFT BY THEN AND I'D PREFER TO SHOW LITTLE
CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR NOW.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 275/10. A WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO
RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. IF JOSEPHINE BECAME A STRONGER
SYSTEM...IT WOULD PROBABLY MOVE MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A
DEEPER STEERING CURRENT LIKE THE HWRF/GFDL MODELS SHOW. HOWEVER...
I'M GOING TO STAY WITH THE PREVIOUS REASONING OF THE SYSTEM
REMAINING WEAKER AND BEING STEERED BY THE MORE SHALLOW CURRENTS
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE SOUTHERN
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE...NOT TOO DISSIMILAR FROM THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/0300Z 13.9N  30.7W    45 KT
 12HR VT     04/1200Z 14.2N  32.5W    45 KT
 24HR VT     05/0000Z 14.6N  34.9W    40 KT
 36HR VT     05/1200Z 15.0N  37.2W    40 KT
 48HR VT     06/0000Z 15.5N  39.5W    35 KT
 72HR VT     07/0000Z 17.0N  44.0W    30 KT
 96HR VT     08/0000Z 18.5N  48.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     09/0000Z 21.5N  53.0W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
NNNN