Hurricane DENNIS

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HURRICANE DENNIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042005
0300Z FRI JUL 08 2005
 
AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS UPGRADED THE
HURRICANE WATCH TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA.  A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDANA DE LA HABANA...
MATANZAS... VILLA CLARA... CIENFUEGOS...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE
AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN
AND GUANTANAMO.  A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
REMAINING PROVINCES OF CUBA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND PINAR
DEL RIO.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS
FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...AND A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS...EAST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF
AND FLORIDA BAY.  A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS EAST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF AND
FLORIDA BAY.
 
AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT
ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH...AND ALONG THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST SOUTH OF GOLDEN BEACH.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS
NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO
LONGBOAT KEY.
 
AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI IS CANCELLED.  A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF JAMAICA AND ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.  WARNINGS
IN JAMAICA WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED FRIDAY MORNING.
 
A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA.
 
A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...FLORIDA...AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DENNIS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N  77.6W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT  13 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  950 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 75NE  70SE  25SW  50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 110SE  75SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE  75SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N  77.6W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N  77.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.2N  79.2W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 75NE  70SE  25SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  75SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 23.0N  81.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  75SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.8N  83.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 26.8N  84.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 30.5N  87.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 140NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 35.5N  88.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 38.5N  86.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N  77.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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