Hurricane DENNIS

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HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN JUL 10 2005

DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM
WINDS IN DENNIS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 KT.  THIS IS BASED ON
MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 139 AND 140 KT FROM A COUPLE
OF PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL.  DENNIS MAY UNDERGO AN
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL...WHICH USUALLY RESULTS
IN SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES NOT
SUGGEST ANY ENVIRONMENTAL MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES THAT COULD
WEAKEN THE HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL... HOWEVER THE WATERS OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF COASTAL AREAS ARE OF SOMEWHAT LOWER OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING.   
DENNIS IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE.

TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS BASICALLY THE SAME AS BEFORE.  THE
HURRICANE IS NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWETWARD IN THE STEERING FLOW
BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL HIGH TO ITS EAST AND A MID-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR
THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST.  THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH LANDFALL.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS
AND TO THE FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY SUPERENSEMBLE TRACK.

PREDICTED STORM SURGE HEIGHTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD DUE TO THE
INCREASED INTENSITY OF THE HURRICANE.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/0900Z 27.8N  86.1W   125 KT
 12HR VT     10/1800Z 29.6N  87.4W   125 KT
 24HR VT     11/0600Z 32.0N  89.0W    65 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     11/1800Z 34.5N  90.0W    35 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     12/0600Z 36.5N  90.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     13/0600Z 38.0N  88.5W    25 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     14/0600Z 38.5N  86.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     15/0600Z 38.5N  84.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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