Hurricane DENNIS

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT JUL 09 2005
 
DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT DENNIS WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY WHILE MOVING OVER CUBA. THE HURRICANE STILL HAS A 12
NMI EYE AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 972 MB. HOWEVER...THE PLANE HAS
NOT REPORTED ANY WINDS HIGHER THAN 71 KNOTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL. 
ASSUMING THAT THE ENTIRE WIND FIELD HAS NOT BEEN SAMPLED...IT IS
ASSUMED THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 80 KNOTS...AND THIS IS VERY
GENEROUS. SHIPS MODEL IS NO LONGER RE-INTENSIFYING DENNIS BUT THE
GFDL DOES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS CONTINUITY AND
RE-STRENGTHENS DENNIS OVER THE GULF BUT THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD LATER TODAY. NORMALLY...
IT TAKES 12 TO 24 HOURS FOR A CYCLONE TO RECOVER FROM THE EFFECTS
OF LAND...IF AT ALL.  

DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS.
THE MOTION OF DENNIS IS STILL CONTROLLED MAINLY BY A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND THE HURRICANE IS ALREADY
LOCATED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE. THEREFORE...A TURN MORE TO
THE NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED. TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
AND EVEN THE UK MODEL SOLUTION WHICH WAS THE FARTHER WEST HAS
SHIFTED EASTWARD...AND IT IS NOW IN AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER
GUIDANCE. HAVING ALL THESE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INCREASES THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND THE EARLY ARRIVAL TO THE
COAST OF THE 34-KNOT WINDS...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
ACCORDINGLY.  
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/0900Z 23.9N  82.9W    80 KT
 12HR VT     09/1800Z 25.3N  84.1W    90 KT
 24HR VT     10/0600Z 27.5N  85.7W   100 KT
 36HR VT     10/1800Z 29.8N  87.1W   110 KT
 48HR VT     11/0600Z 32.5N  88.5W    45 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     12/0600Z 36.0N  90.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     13/0600Z 38.0N  89.5W    20 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     14/0600Z 39.1N  85.0W    20 KT...INLAND
 
 
$$
NNNN