Tropical Storm DENNIS

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TROPICAL STORM DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED JUL 06 2005

DENNIS APPEARS TO BE VERY CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH...BUT THE
INNER CORE SEEMS TO STILL BE IN THE ORGANIZING STAGES. 12Z DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS WERE T4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB AND T3.5/55 KT FROM
SAB...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL COMPROMISE AT 60 KT. THE
CONVECTIVE TOPS OF THE BANDING EVIDENT AT 12Z HAVE SINCE WARMED
SLIGHTLY...BUT A NEW CONVECTIVE BURST HAS RECENTLY OCCURRED NEAR
THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE DENNIS THIS AFTERNOON TO BETTER
DETERMINE THE INTENSITY. OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGHOUT THE FIVE-DAY FORECAST
PERIOD... INCLUDING WARM WATERS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
AND GULF OF MEXICO...AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS INDICATED BY
MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND TO THE LATEST GFDL RUN IN
BRINGING DENNIS TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BY 48 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/13. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CURRENTLY CENTERED NORTH OF CUBA IS THE PRIMARY MECHANISM THAT
SHOULD STEER DENNIS GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR ABOUT
THE NEXT THREE DAYS UNTIL IT CROSSES CUBA. THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE RIGHT AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT
THROUGH DAY THREE...BUT WITH SOME DIVERGENCE THEREAFTER OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO...WITH THE GFS ON THE LEFT AND THE
GFDL...UKMET...AND NOGAPS ON THE RIGHT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS VERY CLOSE TO A
CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE FASTER CONU AND
THE SLOWER FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY SUPERENSEMBLE. IT IS IMPORTANT
TO EMPHASIZE THAT FORECAST ERRORS AT THESE LONGER RANGES CAN BE
QUITE LARGE...AND ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK FORECAST.
 
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/1500Z 15.4N  71.5W    60 KT
 12HR VT     07/0000Z 16.5N  73.5W    65 KT
 24HR VT     07/1200Z 18.1N  76.1W    75 KT
 36HR VT     08/0000Z 19.8N  78.7W    90 KT
 48HR VT     08/1200Z 21.1N  80.9W   100 KT
 72HR VT     09/1200Z 23.5N  84.0W   100 KT
 96HR VT     10/1200Z 27.0N  85.5W   100 KT
120HR VT     11/1200Z 30.5N  87.0W   100 KT...INLAND
 
 
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