Tropical Storm DENNIS

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TROPICAL STORM DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED JUL 06 2005
 
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH
DENNIS. THERE ARE PLENTY OF CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS
AND THE OUTFLOW IS WELL-ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS. T-NUMBERS
FROM TAFB AND AFWA ARE 3.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. OBJECTIVE DVORAK
NUMBERS HAVE REACHED 4.0. SO...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED TO 55 KNOTS.  THE SHEAR IS LOW AHEAD OF DENNIS. IN
FACT...DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD AN AREA OF 20 KT BELOW AVERAGE WIND
SHEAR...AS INDICATED IN THE EXPERIMENTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
PRODUCT PROVIDED BY NOAA/CIRA. IN ADDITION...BOTH SHIPS AND THE
GFDL MODELS SHOW INTENSIFICATION. THE LATTER BRINGS DENNIS TO 121
KNOTS AND 935 MB...AS THE CYCLONE MOVES BETWEEN CUBA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL BUT
CALLS FOR A MAJOR DANGEROUS HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 14
KNOTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 2
TO 3 DAYS. THERAFTER...DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN END OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. 
DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED UP TO 72 HOURS...INCREASING
THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. THEREAFTER...MODELS DIVERGE AND ONE
GROUP SHOWS A TRACK TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF AND THE OTHER AN
EARLIER TURN TO THE NORTH OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CONSENSUS.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/0900Z 15.1N  70.3W    55 KT
 12HR VT     06/1800Z 16.1N  72.3W    60 KT
 24HR VT     07/0600Z 17.8N  75.0W    70 KT
 36HR VT     07/1800Z 19.0N  77.5W    80 KT
 48HR VT     08/0600Z 20.5N  80.0W   100 KT
 72HR VT     09/0600Z 23.0N  83.5W   100 KT
 96HR VT     10/0600Z 26.5N  85.5W   100 KT
120HR VT     11/0600Z 30.0N  87.0W   100 KT
 
 
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