Tropical Depression GILMA

ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082006
200 AM PDT THU AUG 03 2006
 
CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DIMINISH AROUND GILMA AND THE CENTER
REMAINS EXPOSED. DATA T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB OF 1.5 AND 1.0
RESPECTIVELY...AND MAXIMUM WINDS OF 24 KT FROM A 0149 UTC HI-RES
QUIKSCAT PASS JUSTIFY DECREASING THE INTENSITY TO 25 KT. THE SHIPS
MODEL SUGGESTS SHEAR WILL CONTINUE OVER GILMA AND THE DEPRESSION
WILL MOVE INTO AN EVEN DRIER ENVIRONMENT...MAKING THE PROSPECTS FOR
ANY RE-STRENGTHENING SLIM. GILMA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT
LOW LATER TODAY...AND PERSIST FOR A DAY OR SO BEFORE DISSIPATION.
 
THE CURRENT MOTION IS 285/5...AND GILMA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE FORECAST
TRACK PRIOR TO DISSIPATION IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND TO THE LEFT OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/0900Z 15.4N 108.4W    25 KT
 12HR VT     03/1800Z 15.8N 109.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     04/0600Z 16.5N 110.6W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     04/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/AVILA
 
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