Tropical Storm FABIO

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TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072006
200 PM PDT WED AUG 02 2006
 
THE EARLIER BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY WEAKENING AND BECOMING INCREASINGLY
DISPLACED FROM FROM THE CENTER. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT VERTICAL
SHEAR...DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS...AND INCREASINGLY
STABLE AIR HAVE DONE THEIR DAMAGE AND THE CYCLONE IS NOW EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN. STILL...WITH THE CYCLONE REMAINING OVER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 26C OR GREATER FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS...NEW
BURSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  ACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
MAINTAINS A DEPRESSION THROUGH 48 HOURS.  IF NEW BURSTS OF
CONVECTION DO NOT OCCUR...THIS FORECAST COULD BE GENEROUS AND THE
SYSTEM MAY DISSIPATE SOONER THAN SHOWN HERE.  IN FACT... MOST OF
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AND THE FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE SHOW JUST THAT.
 
FABIO IS MOVING RIGHT ALONG THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED AT 275/14. UNDER THE
ASSUMPTION THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN SOME VERTICAL
DEPTH FOR A LITTLE LONGER...THE FORECAST SHOWS SOME NORTHWARD
PROGRESS THROUGH 36 HOURS...ALBEIT NOT AS MUCH AS THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.  THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE SHALLOW AND
STEERED PRIMARILY BY THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES. SOME OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW A MOTION SOUTH OF DUE WEST BUT THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SIMPLY TURNS THE CYCLONE WESTWARD FOR THE TIME BEING.  
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/2100Z 15.1N 132.6W    35 KT
 12HR VT     03/0600Z 15.3N 134.8W    35 KT
 24HR VT     03/1800Z 15.6N 137.6W    30 KT
 36HR VT     04/0600Z 15.7N 140.4W    30 KT
 48HR VT     04/1800Z 15.7N 143.2W    30 KT
 72HR VT     05/1800Z 15.7N 148.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     06/1800Z 15.7N 153.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
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FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN
 
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