Tropical Depression TWO-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022006
200 PM PDT SUN JUN 04 2006
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION HAS ACCELERATED EAST OR EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OUT FROM
UNDER THE EARLIER DEEP CONVECTION... THE LATTER OF WHICH HAS SINCE
WEAKENED AND MOVED NORTHEASTWARD INTO MEXICO. AT 18Z...AS THE
CENTER WAS PASSING SOUTH OF ACAPULCO... A SUSTAINED WIND OF 22 KT
WITH A GUST TO 32 KT WAS REPORTED. THIS WIND DATA... ALONG WITH 
CONSENSUS T1.5 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES... IS BARELY ENOUGH TO
KEEP THIS SYSTEM LIMPING ALONG AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THIS
ADVISORY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 100/09 KT. THE DEPRESSION REMAINS
NORTH OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS... AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A LARGER-SCALE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC GYRE CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL MEXICO. THE TWO WESTERLY STREAM FLOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE PUSHING THE CYCLONE EAST OR EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL MODEL STILL INSIST
THAT TD-2E WILL NOT MOVE INLAND OVER MEXICO. HOWEVER...GIVEN THEIR
LESS THAN STERLING PERFORMANCE OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS... THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND BRINGS THE CYCLONE
VERY NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO IN 12 HOURS...AND THEN DISSIPATES IT
AFTER THAT...EVEN IF THE CENTER REMAINS OVER WATER.
 
UNFAVORABLE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR... DRY MID-LEVEL AIR
PUNCHING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE... AND THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO LAND SHOULD INHIBIT ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...
AND WILL LIKELY HELP TO BRING ABOUT ITS DEMISE BY THIS TIME
TOMORROW... EVEN IF THE CYCLONE CENTER REMAINS OVER WATER. THE GFDL
MODEL DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE AFTER 24 HOURS OVER WATER... AND
DISSIPATION COULD OCCUR EVEN SOONER IF THE CENTER MOVES INLAND
LATER TONIGHT.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/2100Z 16.5N  99.8W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 12HR VT     05/0600Z 16.3N  99.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
 24HR VT     05/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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